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Transportation strategies for a 1.5 °C world: A comparison of four countries
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102526
Magdala Arioli , Lew Fulton , Oliver Lah

Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of “avoid” (cutting travel growth), “shift” (to lower CO2 modes) and “improve” (vehicle and fuel CO2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems.



中文翻译:

1.5°C世界的运输策略:四个国家的比较

新兴经济体中的交通运输减碳将是缓解全球气候变化努力的主要挑战之一。在本文中,为四个新兴经济体(巴西,印度,肯尼亚和越南)的陆路运输实现1.5度情景开发了途径。目的是强调在交通需求迅速增长的国家中低碳交通的主要机遇和挑战。本文的主要重点是调和实际和要求的减排目标,并为实现这些目标制定合理的途径。本文还确定了这些国家遵循这些途径的潜在策略和措施。分析考虑了“避免”(减少旅行增长),“转移”(降低CO 2)的贡献。模式)和“改善”(车辆和燃料CO 2特征)对脱碳情景的干预。这些方案旨在为新的国家自主贡献提供信息,并阐明与《巴黎协定》一致的深度脱碳途径的可行性。这项研究的结果表明,要达到1.5DS,就需要大幅改变出行方式,技术和燃料,并大力强化当前的政策方法。脱碳解决方案将需要更多地使用和投资高效模式,向接近零碳燃料的重大转变,例如清洁电力,系统集成,模式转变和城市规划解决方案。尽管所选国家/地区之间的社会经济状况和国家运输系统有所不同,但一些相当相似的策略似乎可能是缓解工作的核心,

更新日期:2020-09-07
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