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Bayesian network based procedure for regional drought monitoring: The Seasonally Combinative Regional Drought Indicator.
Journal of Environmental Management ( IF 8.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111296
Zulfiqar Ali 1 , Ijaz Hussain 2 , Marco Andreas Grzegorczyk 3 , Guangheng Ni 4 , Muhammad Faisal 5 , Sadia Qamar 6 , Alaa Mohamd Shoukry 7 , Mohammed Abdel Wahab Sharkawy 8 , Showkat Gani 9 , Fares Fawzi Al-Deek 8
Affiliation  

Drought is a complex natural hazard. It occurs due to a prolonged period of deficient in rainfall amount in a certain region. Unlike other natural hazards, drought hazard has a recurrent occurrence. Therefore, comprehensive drought monitoring is essential for regional climate control and water management authorities. In this paper, we have proposed a new drought indicator: the Seasonally Combinative Regional Drought Indicator (SCRDI). The SCRDI integrates Bayesian networking theory with Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI) at varying gauge stations in various month/seasons. Application of SCRDI is based on five gauging stations of Northern Area of Pakistan. We have found that the proposed indicator accounts the effect of climate variation within a specified territory, accurately characterizes drought by capturing seasonal dependencies in geospatial variation scenario, and reduces the large/complex data for future drought monitoring. In summary, the proposed indicator can be used for comprehensive characterization and assessment of drought at a certain region.



中文翻译:

基于贝叶斯网络的区域干旱监测程序:季节性组合区域干旱指标。

干旱是一个复杂的自然灾害。出现这种情况的原因是在某些地区长时间缺乏降雨。与其他自然灾害不同,干旱灾害经常发生。因此,全面的干旱监测对于区域气候控制和水管理当局至关重要。在本文中,我们提出了一个新的干旱指标:季节性组合区域干旱指标(SCRDI)。SCRDI将贝叶斯网络理论与标准化降水温度指数(SPTI)集成在不同月份/季节的不同计量站上。SCRDI的应用基于巴基斯坦北部地区的五个计量站。我们发现,拟议指标可说明特定区域内气候变化的影响,通过捕获地理空间变化场景中的季节依赖性来准确地描述干旱特征,并减少大/复杂数据以用于将来的干旱监测。总之,所提出的指标可用于特定区域的干旱的综合表征和评估。

更新日期:2020-09-07
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