Abstract Accurate assessment of the burst pressure of corroded pipes is pivotal for pipelines integrity management and adequate decision-making and thus, meticulous selection of an appropriate prediction model is vital. Several burst strength models have been developed based on analytical, numerical and empirical analyses, often validated by full or small-scale experiments. This paper provides a comprehensive review, calibration and model uncertainty evaluation of a wide range of burst strength models available in the literature relative to a large sample of more than 240 tests of burst pressure covering a variety of steel grades. First, the most appropriate strength model for corrosion free pipes is calibrated by comparing it with extensive test data and the inherent model uncertainty factor is derived. Then, 25 burst strength models for corroded pipelines are categorically analysed in three classes of steel pipe grades, i.e., low (X42 or less to X56), medium (X60 to X70) and high strength (X80 to X120). Statistical parameters such as the mean and absolute mean errors and standard deviation are adopted to analyse and compare the models’ performance against test results. The bust strength models of corroded pipelines in the three categories are then calibrated by model uncertainty factors derived from the experimental data. Then, the top 10 models are comparatively analysed in each category to check their performance and uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the uncertainties with increasing defect depth. The paper concludes exploring the extent of applicability and best utilization of the models for assessing the burst pressure of corroded pipelines. The present study also provides guidance on the calibrated models, which can be used to assess probabilistically the safety of intact and corroded pipelines against burst failure.

中文翻译：

---

腐蚀管道爆破压力模型的不确定性量化

摘要 准确评估腐蚀管道爆破压力对于管道完整性管理和充分决策至关重要，因此，精心选择合适的预测模型至关重要。已经基于分析、数值和经验分析开发了几种爆破强度模型，通常通过全面或小规模实验进行验证。本文针对涵盖各种钢种的 240 多项爆破压力测试的大样本，对文献中可用的各种爆破强度模型进行了全面审查、校准和模型不确定性评估。首先，通过与大量测试数据进行比较来校准最适合无腐蚀管道的强度模型，并推导出固有的模型不确定性因子。然后，对腐蚀管道的25种爆破强度模型进行了分类分析，钢管等级分为低（X42以下至X56）、中（X60至X70）和高强度（X80至X120）三类。采用均值和绝对均值误差和标准差等统计参数来分析和比较模型的性能与测试结果。然后通过从实验数据导出的模型不确定性因子校准三类腐蚀管道的破坏强度模型。然后，对每个类别中的前 10 个模型进行比较分析，以检查它们的性能和不确定性。蒙特卡罗模拟用于评估随着缺陷深度增加的不确定性。本文最后探讨了评估腐蚀管道爆破压力的模型的适用范围和最佳利用程度。本研究还为校准模型提供了指导，可用于从概率上评估完好和腐蚀的管道对爆裂故障的安全性。