Abstract The long-term variations of wave characteristics in the Black Sea are evaluated by using a third-generation wave model (Simulating WAves Nearshore, SWAN), forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR) wind data, covering the period of 1979-2018. The model results were calibrated and validated with buoy measurements at seven stations along the Black Sea. The comparative study shows that the CFSR dataset predicted slightly greater significant wave heights than the ERA-Interim dataset. The greatest difference between two datasets in terms of wave characteristics was found in the northeastern part of the Black Sea. The long-term averages and the variations of long-term trends for wave characteristics show that southwestern part of the Black Sea was characterized by greater significant wave heights, longer mean wave periods and storm durations, and lower variability, while the northeastern part of the basin was characterized by lower significant wave heights, shorter mean wave periods and storm durations, and higher variability. The long-term trends indicate that the wave characteristics over the 40-year period are more likely to be exposed to higher variation on the eastern part of the Black Sea than the western part of the basin.

中文翻译：

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基于黑海上空 SWAN 后报的极端波浪特征的长期分析，使用两种不同的风场

摘要 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) ERA-Interim 和 National环境预测/气候预测系统再分析中心 (NCEP/CFSR) 风数据，涵盖 1979-2018 年期间。模型结果在黑海沿岸的七个站点通过浮标测量进行了校准和验证。比较研究表明，CFSR 数据集预测的显着波高略高于 ERA-Interim 数据集。在黑海东北部发现了两个数据集在波浪特征方面的最大差异。波浪特征的长期平均值和长期趋势的变化表明，黑海西南部具有显着波高较大、平均波浪周期和风暴历时较长、变率较小的特点，而黑海东北部具有显着波高较大、平均波浪周期和风暴历时较长、变率较小的特点。流域的特点是显着波高较低，平均波浪周期和风暴持续时间较短，以及变化较大。长期趋势表明，与盆地西部相比，40 年期间的波浪特征更可能暴露在黑海东部更高的变化中。而流域东北部的特点是显着波高较低，平均波浪周期和风暴持续时间较短，变化较大。长期趋势表明，与盆地西部相比，40 年期间的波浪特征更可能暴露在黑海东部更高的变化中。而流域东北部的特点是显着波高较低，平均波浪周期和风暴持续时间较短，变化较大。长期趋势表明，与盆地西部相比，40 年期间的波浪特征更可能暴露在黑海东部更高的变化中。