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Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-05 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04262-8
Susanne Schmidt , Marcus Nüsser , Ravi Baghel , Juliane Dame

This article attempts to reconstruct the causes and consequences of the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event in Gya, Ladakh. We analyse the evolution of the Gya glacial lake using a high temporal and high spatial resolution remote sensing approach. In order to frame the case study in a larger picture, we produce a comprehensive inventory of glacial lakes for the entire Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Changes in the extent and number of glacial lakes have been detected for the years 1969, 1993, 2000/02 and 2018 in order to assess the potential risk of future GLOFs in the region. The remote sensing approach was supported by field surveys between 2014 and 2019. The case study of the Gya GLOF illustrates the problem of potentially hazardous lakes being overlooked in inventories. The broader analysis of the Ladakh region and in-depth analysis of one GLOF lead us to propose an integrated approach for detecting undocumented GLOFs. This article demonstrates the necessity for using multiple methods to ensure robustness of risk assessment. The improved understanding can lead to a more accurate evaluation of exposure to cryosphere hazards and identification of alternative mechanisms and spatial patterns of GLOFs in the Himalaya.



中文翻译:

拉达克的冰冻圈危害:2014年Gya冰川湖爆发洪水及其对风险评估的影响

本文试图重建2014年在拉达克Gya发生的冰川湖爆发洪水(GLOF)事件的原因和后果。我们使用高时间和高空间分辨率的遥感方法分析了Gya冰川湖的演变。为了从更大的角度构建案例研究,我们对拉达克的整个喜马拉雅山脉整个地区的冰川湖进行了全面盘点。在1969年,1993年,2000/02年和2018年发现了冰川湖的范围和数量的变化,以便评估该地区未来GLOF的潜在风险。2014年至2019年期间,遥感方法得到了实地调查的支持。GyaGLOF的案例研究说明了清单中忽视了潜在危险湖泊的问题。对拉达克地区的更广泛分析和对一个GLOF的深入分析使我们提出了一种用于检测无证GLOF的综合方法。本文演示了使用多种方法来确保风险评估的鲁棒性的必要性。增进了解可以导致更准确地评估冰冻圈危害的暴露程度,并确定喜马拉雅地区GLOF的替代机制和空间格局。

更新日期:2020-09-06
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