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Predicting temperature mortality and selection in natural Drosophila populations
Science ( IF 56.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-03 , DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9287
Enrico L Rezende 1 , Francisco Bozinovic 1 , András Szilágyi 2, 3 , Mauro Santos 3, 4
Affiliation  

Accounting for heat burdens As climate warming becomes more and more apparent and influential, there is an increasing desire to predict its long-term impacts on species. Classically, this has been done by extrapolating lethal limits based on those observed in the laboratory. In the real world, however, organisms do not experience a single high temperature that then returns to a comfortable temperature, but rather a series of high temperatures during the hot season. Rezende et al. accounted for these accumulative effects in a dynamic model that accurately predicted empirical patterns in wild fruit fly populations, showing that cumulative effects of warming temperatures can be included in future estimates (see the Perspective by Huey and Kearney). Science, this issue p. 1242; see also p. 1163 Accounting for cumulative effects of warming improves mortality predictions in wild fruit flies. Average and extreme temperatures will increase in the near future, but how such shifts will affect mortality in natural populations is still unclear. We used a dynamic model to predict mortality under variable temperatures on the basis of heat tolerance laboratory measurements. Theoretical lethal temperatures for 11 Drosophila species under different warming conditions were virtually indistinguishable from empirical results. For Drosophila in the field, daily mortality predicted from ambient temperature records accumulate over weeks or months, consistent with observed seasonal fluctuations and population collapse in nature. Our model quantifies temperature-induced mortality in nature, which is crucial to study the effects of global warming on natural populations, and analyses highlight that critical temperatures are unreliable predictors of mortality.

中文翻译:

预测自然果蝇种群的温度死亡率和选择

考虑热负担 随着气候变暖变得越来越明显和影响越来越大,人们越来越希望预测其对物种的长期影响。传统上,这是通过根据实验室观察到的结果推断致死限度来完成的。然而,在现实世界中,生物体不会经历单一的高温然后恢复到舒适的温度,而是在炎热季节经历一系列高温。Rezende 等。在一个动态模型中解释了这些累积效应,该模型准确预测了野生果蝇种群的经验模式,表明未来的估计中可以包括变暖温度的累积效应(参见 Huey 和 Kearney 的观点)。科学,这个问题 p。1242; 另见第 1163 考虑到变暖的累积影响,可以改进对野生果蝇的死亡率的预测。在不久的将来,平均和极端温度将升高,但这种变化将如何影响自然种群的死亡率尚不清楚。我们使用动态模型根据耐热实验室测量结果预测可变温度下的死亡率。11 种果蝇在不同变暖条件下的理论致死温度与经验结果几乎没有区别。对于实地的果蝇,根据环境温度记录预测的每日死亡率会在数周或数月内累积,这与观察到的季节性波动和自然界中的种群崩溃一致。我们的模型量化了自然界中温度引起的死亡率,
更新日期:2020-09-03
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