The outcome of the 2016 presidential election in the United States was partly influenced by factors such as social marginalization and anti-immigrant sentiment, both of which have been associated with the global rise in far-right voting (FRV) outcomes. Sociological hypotheses such as group threat and group contact have been suggested as potential contextual factors in the relationship between immigrant share and far-right support; more recently, the halo effect has been used as a spatial mechanism to explore these relationships. Briefly, the halo effect describes increased FRV in ethnically homogeneous areas that are near ethnically diverse areas. This portentous trend has significant international implications, but differences in the spatial distribution and composition of immigrant share and the spatial scale of analysis have produced inconsistent empirical results. This study addressed the spatial distribution of the halo effect in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and used geographically weighted regression to explore spatial nonstationarity in the relationships between socioeconomic factors and Republican (GOP) support. Spatial nonstationarity is observed when a relationship is not globally consistent such as in large or complex areas where local processes might interact with or overwhelm global processes. We found evidence of spatial nonstationarity in the relationships between GOP support and many socioeconomic factors, including the halo effect. In addition to providing a better understanding of the spatial context of electoral dynamics and their interactions at a local scale, these results indicate that spatial nonstationarity in these relationships might be partially responsible for inconsistent results in previous studies.

2016年美国总统大选的结果在一定程度上受到诸如社会边缘化和反移民情绪等因素的影响，这两者都与全球极右翼投票（FRV）投票结果的上升有关。社会学假说，例如群体威胁和群体接触被认为是移民份额和极右支持之间关系的潜在背景因素。最近，光晕效应已被用作探索这些关系的空间机制。简而言之，光环效应描述了在种族多样化地区附近的种族同质地区的FRV增加。这一巨大趋势具有重大的国际影响，但是，移民份额的空间分布和组成以及分析的空间规模上的差异产生了不一致的经验结果。这项研究解决了2016年美国总统大选中光环效应的空间分布，并使用地理加权回归探索了社会经济因素与共和党（GOP）支持之间关系的空间非平稳性。当关系不是全局一致的时，例如在大型或复杂区域中，局部过程可能与全局过程相互作用或不堪重负，则观察到空间非平稳性。我们发现在GOP支持与许多社会经济因素（包括光环效应）之间的关系中存在空间不平稳的证据。