Climate change and population growth have influenced social and physical water scarcity in many regions. Accordingly, the future performance of water storage reservoirs, as one of the fundamental elements in the water resource management, are anticipated to be affected by climate change. This study reports on a framework that can model Reliability-Resiliency-Vulnerability (RRV) measures of water reservoirs in the context of climate change. The framework first develops a hydrological model of a reservoir system using its historical data. The model is then optimised to minimise the water deficit and flooding around the catchment area of the reservoir. The resulting optimal policies are simulated back to the model considering the GCMs. Finally, RRV indices are calculated. RRV indices are effective measures for defining the performance of reservoir systems. Reliability is defined as the probability of the failure of the system, Resiliency is defined as the time needed for the system to go back to its satisfactory state once it entered the failure state, and Vulnerability is defined as the “magnitude of the failure” of a system. The proposed framework has been applied to a reservoir system located in the south-west of Iran on the Dez river. The results show climate change may increase the reliability and resiliency of the system under study while increasing its vulnerability. Therefore, the output of this framework can also provide supplementary information to authorities and decision-makers to inform future water management and planning policies.

气候变化和人口增长已经影响了许多地区的社会和自然水资源短缺。因此，作为水资源管理的基本要素之一，储水库的未来性能预计会受到气候变化的影响。这项研究报告了一个框架，该框架可以在气候变化的背景下对水库的可靠性，弹性，脆弱性（RRV）进行建模。该框架首先使用其历史数据开发水库系统的水文模型。然后对该模型进行优化，以最大程度地减少水库集水区周围的水短缺和洪水。考虑到GCM，将生成的最优策略模拟回模型。最后，计算RRV指数。RRV指数是定义储层系统性能的有效措施。可靠性被定义为系统发生故障的概率，弹性被定义为系统进入故障状态后回到其令人满意的状态所需的时间，而脆弱性被定义为系统的“故障幅度”。一个系统。拟议的框架已应用于位于伊朗西南部Dez河上的水库系统。结果表明，气候变化可能会增加所研究系统的可靠性和弹性，同时增加其脆弱性。因此，该框架的输出还可以向当局和决策者提供补充信息，以为未来的水管理和规划政策提供依据。可靠性被定义为系统发生故障的概率，弹性被定义为系统进入故障状态后回到其令人满意的状态所需的时间，而脆弱性被定义为系统的“故障幅度”。一个系统。拟议的框架已应用于位于伊朗西南部Dez河上的水库系统。结果表明，气候变化可能会增加所研究系统的可靠性和弹性，同时增加其脆弱性。因此，该框架的输出还可以向当局和决策者提供补充信息，以为未来的水管理和规划政策提供依据。可靠性被定义为系统发生故障的概率，弹性被定义为系统进入故障状态后回到其令人满意的状态所需的时间，而脆弱性被定义为系统的“故障幅度”。一个系统。拟议的框架已应用于位于伊朗西南部Dez河上的水库系统。结果表明，气候变化可能会增加所研究系统的可靠性和弹性，同时增加其脆弱性。因此，该框架的输出还可以向当局和决策者提供补充信息，以为未来的水管理和规划政策提供依据。漏洞被定义为系统的“故障数量”。拟议的框架已应用于位于伊朗西南部Dez河上的水库系统。结果表明，气候变化可能会增加所研究系统的可靠性和弹性，同时增加其脆弱性。因此，该框架的输出还可以向当局和决策者提供补充信息，以为未来的水管理和规划政策提供依据。漏洞被定义为系统的“故障数量”。拟议的框架已应用于位于伊朗西南部Dez河上的水库系统。结果表明，气候变化可能会增加所研究系统的可靠性和弹性，同时增加其脆弱性。因此，该框架的输出还可以向当局和决策者提供补充信息，以为未来的水管理和规划政策提供依据。