The reliability of transferring species distribution models (SDMs) to new ranges and future climates has been widely debated. Biological invasions offer the unique opportunity to evaluate model transferability, as distribution data between species’ native and introduced ranges are geographically independent of each other. Here, we performed the first global quantitative synthesis of the spatial transferability of SDMs for 235 invasive species and assessed the association of model transferability with the focal invader, model choice and parameterisation. We found that SDMs had limited spatial transferability overall. However, model transferability was higher for terrestrial endotherms, species introduced from or to the Southern Hemisphere, and species introduced more recently. Model transferability was also positively associated with the number of presences for model calibration and evaluation, respectively, but negatively with the number of predictors. These findings highlight the importance of considering the characteristics of the focal invader, environment and modelling in the application and assessment of SDMs.

中文翻译：

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物种分布模型对入侵物种的空间转移能力有限。

将物种分布模型（SDM）转移到新范围和未来气候的可靠性已受到广泛争议。生物入侵为评估模型的可移植性提供了独特的机会，因为物种原生和引入范围之间的分布数据在地理上彼此独立。在这里，我们对235种入侵物种的SDM的空间转移能力进行了首次全球定量合成，并评估了模型转移能力与病虫入侵者，模型选择和参数化的关联。我们发现SDM总体上具有有限的空间可传递性。但是，对于陆地吸热，从南半球引入或引入南半球的物种以及最近引入的物种，模型的可转移性更高。模型的可传递性也分别与模型校准和评估的存在数量呈正相关，而与预测变量的数量呈负相关。这些发现凸显了在SDM的应用和评估中考虑局灶性侵袭者的特征，环境和建模的重要性。