Bivariate frequency analysis of seasonal runoff series under future climate change,Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Bivariate frequency analysis of seasonal runoff series under future climate change
Hydrological Sciences Journal ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-29 , DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1817927
Min Li _{1,

2} , Ting Zhang _{2,

3} , Ping Feng ₂

Affiliation

ABSTRACT Climate change will not only affect a single hydrological series but also may affect the dependence structure. However, traditional hydrological approaches often fail to analyse the multiple characteristics of runoff within a bivariate framework under climate change. This study explores the influence of future climate change (2031 − 2080) on the runoff volume series in spring, summer and autumn as well as their dependence structures in the Luanhe River Basin, China. The results indicate that the time-varying dependence structure between spring and summer runoff series, as well as that between the summer and autumn runoff series, are mainly related to the summer precipitation. The differences between copula models with constant dependence parameters and those with time-varying dependence parameters are presented under different cases. This study incorporates the impacts of climate change on the bivariate frequency analysis of seasonal runoff series, which may provide important guidance for water resource management under climate change.

更新日期：2020-09-29

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