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Sustainable planning in sugar-bioethanol supply chain under deep uncertainty: A case study of South African sugarcane industry
Computers & Chemical Engineering ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2020.107091
Babooshka Shavazipour , Jonas Stray , Theodor J. Stewart

In this paper, the strategic planning of sugar-bioethanol supply chains (SCs) under deep uncertainty has been addressed by applying a two-stage scenario-based multiobjective optimisation methodology. In practice, the depth of uncertainty is very high, potential outcomes are not precisely enumerable, and probabilities of outcomes are not properly definable. To date, no appropriate framework has been suggested for dealing with deep uncertainty in supply chain management and energy-related problems. This study is the first try to fills this gap. Particularly, the sustainability of the whole infrastructure of the sugar-bioethanol SCs is analysed in such a way that the final solutions are sustainable, robust and adaptable for a broad range of plausible futures. Three objectives are considered in this problem under six uncertain parameters. A case study of South African sugarcane industry is utilised to study and examine the proposed model. The results prove the economic profitability and sustainability of the project.



中文翻译:

高度不确定性下糖-生物乙醇供应链中的可持续计划:以南非甘蔗业为例

在本文中,通过应用基于情景的两阶段多目标优化方法,解决了在高度不确定性下糖-生物乙醇供应链(SC)的战略规划。在实践中,不确定性的深度非常高,潜在结果无法精确地枚举,并且结果的概率无法正确定义。迄今为止,尚未提出任何适当的框架来应对供应链管理中的严重不确定性以及与能源有关的问题。这项研究是填补这一空白的首次尝试。特别是,对糖-生物乙醇SC整个基础设施的可持续性进行了分析,以使最终解决方案具有可持续性,稳健性,并适用于各种可能的未来。在六个不确定参数下,在此问题中考虑了三个目标。以南非甘蔗业为例,研究和验证了该模型。结果证明了该项目的经济效益和可持续性。

更新日期:2020-09-07
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