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Agricultural zoning as tool for expansion of cassava in climate change scenarios
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03367-1
Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido , José Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraes , Kamila Cunha de Meneses , Pedro Antonio Lorençone , João Antonio Lorençone , Gabriel Henrique de Olanda Souza , Guilherme Botega Torsoni

Improvement of planting season and crop growth time, considering climatic and soil needs of plants, is important to increase cassava (Manihot esculenta) production in Midwestern Brazil. Thus, we sought to develop an agricultural zoning for cassava cultivation in the Midwest of Brazil in different climate change scenarios. Mean air temperature and precipitation data from localities of the Midwest of Brazil were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Clay (%) data from localities of the Midwest of Brazil were obtained from SoilGrids. Regions where the air temperature was within the range from 20 to 27 °C were considered climatically favorable for commercial exploitation of cassava, in addition to precipitation between 1000 and 1500 mm year−1, and clay content was less than ≤ 35%. Moreover, regions with air temperature below 16 °C and above 38 °C, precipitation below 1000 mm and above 1500 mm year−1, and clay content > 35% were considered unsuitable for cassava cultivation. Raster or matrix images, corresponding to mean annual air temperature, annual precipitation, and clay (soil), were superimposed to create cassava suitability classes, according to crop requirements. The climate change scenarios were established by changing the air temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm). The air temperature was increased by 1.5, 3.0, 4.5, and 6.0 °C as adopted by Pirttioja et al. (Clim Res 65:87–105, 2015). We changed in precipitation − 30, − 15, + 15, and 30% according to the future projections simulated by the IPCC (2014). Maps were made using geographic information systems. In the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goiás, mean precipitation was around 1200 to 4000 mm year−1. Northern Mato Grosso showed the highest annual precipitation, with values above 3500 mm. A large extension of the Midwest region of Brazil is climatically and soil favorable for cassava. The Midwest is a region with high rainfall, so we recommend planting in well-drained soils to avoid phytosanitary problems. Producers taking this care can plant cassava in 86.6% of the territory. The climate change scenarios demonstrated different Agriculture zonings for cassava in the Midwest of Brazil. With the increase in air temperature, greater marginal classes occurred, but cassava is resistant to this condition. But, this increase in temperature can reduce the cycle and consequently reduce production.



中文翻译:

农业区划作为木薯在气候变化情景中的扩展工具

考虑到植物的气候和土壤需求,改善播种季节和作物生长时间对于增加巴西中西部的木薯(Manihot esculenta)产量很重要。因此,我们寻求在不同气候变化情景下在巴西中西部开发木薯种植的农业区划。来自巴西中西部地区的平均气温和降水数据是从巴西国家气象研究所(INMET)获得的。来自巴西中西部地区的粘土(%)数据是从SoilGrids获得的。气温在20至27°C范围内的地区,除了在1000至1500 mm年-1的降水量之外,在气候上也有利于木薯的商业开发,且粘土含量小于或等于35%。此外,空气温度低于16°C且高于38°C,降水量低于1000 mm且高于1500 mm的地区- 1年,且粘土含量> 35%被认为不适合木薯种植。根据农作物需求,将栅格或矩阵图像(对应于年平均气温,年降水量和粘土(土壤))叠加起来,以创建木薯适宜性等级。通过改变气温(°C)和降雨量(mm)建立了气候变化情景。如Pirttioja等人所采用的,空气温度分别升高了1.5、3.0、4.5和6.0°C。(Clim Res 65:87-105,2015年)。根据IPCC(2014年)模拟的未来预测,我们的降水量发生了变化,分别为−30,−15,+ 15和30%。地图是使用地理信息系统制作的。在南马托格罗索州,马托格罗索州和戈亚斯州,年平均降水量约为1200至4000毫米-1。北马托格罗索州年降水量最高,超过3500毫米。巴西中西部地区的大范围气候和土壤都有利于木薯。中西部是一个降雨多的地区,因此我们建议在排水良好的土壤中种植以避免植物检疫问题。采取这种措施的生产者可以在该国86.6%的土地上种植木薯。气候变化情景显示了巴西中西部木薯的不同农业区划。随着气温的升高,发生了更多的边际分类,但是木薯对这种情况有抵抗力。但是,这种温度升高会缩短周期并因此降低产量。

更新日期:2020-09-02
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