Optical fiber cables deployed in the last 30 years have been considered to be long-lived components due to the generally high level of reliability of glass and the robustness of cable construction. Like all other components however, optical cables can change with age as a result of their construction or deployment characteristics as well as operational and environmental stress factors. In this article, we apply a time-series decomposition method on span loss data collected during 12 months in four bidirectional spans of a production network in order to detect long-term degradation of the fiber plant. After extracting the trend component, a Mann–Kendall test is applied to the span loss curves and a Sen's slope estimator test is used for determining the magnitude of span loss change. The method allows detecting a 1.3% increase in span loss over the 12-month period of observation in one of the fiber spans. This trend is confirmed using a linear regression model computed according to Theil Sen method applied to additional one-year data. The proposed method can allow the early detection of fiber plant degradation and the proactive planning of fiber replacement.

中文翻译：

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使用时间序列分解方法检测的光跨度损耗趋势

过去 30 年中部署的光纤电缆被认为是长寿命组件，因为玻璃的可靠性和电缆结构的坚固性普遍较高。然而，与所有其他组件一样，光缆会由于其结构或部署特性以及操作和环境压力因素而随着时间的推移而变化。在本文中，我们对在 12 个月内在生产网络的四个双向跨度中收集的跨度损耗数据应用时间序列分解方法，以检测光纤工厂的长期退化。提取趋势分量后，对跨度损失曲线应用 Mann-Kendall 检验，并使用 Sen 斜率估计器检验确定跨度损失变化的幅度。该方法允许检测 1。在其中一个光纤跨距的 12 个月观察期内，跨距损耗增加了 3%。使用根据应用于额外一年数据的 Theil Sen 方法计算的线性回归模型证实了这一趋势。所提出的方法可以实现纤维植物退化的早期检测和纤维更换的主动规划。