Changes in the physical environment along the Antarctic Peninsula have been among the most rapid anywhere on the planet. In concert with environmental change, the potential for direct human disturbance resulting from tourism, scientific programs, and commercial fisheries continues to rise in the region. While seabirds, such as the gentoo penguin Pygoscelis papua, are commonly used to assess the impact of these disturbances on natural systems, research efforts are often hampered by limited spatial coverage and lack of temporal resolution. Using a large‐scale remote time‐lapse camera network and a modeling framework adapted from capture‐recapture studies, we assess drivers of intra‐ and inter‐annual dynamics in gentoo penguin breeding success across nearly the entire species’ range in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. We quantify the precise timing of egg/chick mortality within each season and examine the role of precipitation events, tourism visitation, and fishing activity for Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (a principal prey resource in the Antarctic) in these processes. We find that nest failure rates are higher in the egg than the chick stage and that neither krill fishing nor tourism visitation had a strong effect on gentoo penguin breeding success. While precipitation events had, on average, little effect on nest mortality, results suggest that extreme weather events can precipitate sharp increases in nest failure. This study highlights the importance of continuous ecosystem monitoring, facilitated here by remote time‐lapse cameras, in understanding ecological responses to environmental stressors, particularly with regard to the timing of events such as extreme weather.

中文翻译：

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使用远程摄像头网络对年度内和年度间育种成功进行大规模评估

南极半岛沿线的自然环境变化一直是地球上最快速的变化之一。与环境变化相一致，该地区旅游，科学计划和商业渔业造成的直接人为干扰的可能性继续增加。而海鸟，如金鸡企鹅Pygoscelis papua通常用于评估这些干扰对自然系统的影响，但由于有限的空间覆盖和缺乏时间分辨率，研究工作常常受阻。我们使用大型远程延时摄影机网络和根据捕获-捕获研究改编的建模框架，评估了大西洋金枪鱼企鹅几乎在整个物种范围内的金努企鹅企鹅繁殖成功的年内和年际动力学驱动因素。南大洋。我们量化每个季节内鸡蛋/小鸡死亡的确切时间，并研究降水事件，旅游探访和捕鱼活动对南极磷虾Euphausia superba的作用。（南极的主要猎物资源）在这些过程中。我们发现，蛋中的巢失败率比雏鸡阶段高，并且磷虾捕捞和旅游探访都没有对金头企鹅繁殖成功产生强烈影响。平均而言，降水事件对鸟巢死亡率几乎没有影响，但结果表明，极端天气事件可能导致鸟巢破坏急剧增加。这项研究强调了连续的生态系统监测的重要性，这在远程延时摄影机的帮助下，对于理解对环境压力源的生态反应，特别是在极端天气等事件发生的时间方面具有重要意义。