Forests are projected to undergo dramatic compositional and structural shifts prompted by global changes, such as climatic changes and intensifying natural disturbance regimes. Future uncertainty makes planning for forest management exceptionally difficult, demanding novel approaches to maintain or improve the ability of forest ecosystems to respond and rapidly reorganize after disturbance events. Adopting a landscape perspective in forest management is particularly important in fragmented forest landscapes where both diversity and connectivity play key roles in determining resilience to global change. In this context, network analysis and functional traits combined with ecological dynamic modeling can help evaluate changes in functional response diversity and connectivity within and among forest stands in fragmented landscapes. Here, we coupled ecological dynamic modeling with functional traits analysis and network theory to analyze forested landscapes as an interconnected network of forest patches. We simulated future forest landscape dynamics in a large landscape in southern Quebec, Canada, under a combination of climate, disturbance, and management scenarios. We depicted the landscape as a functional network, assessed changes in future resilience using indicators at multiple spatial scales, and evaluated if current management practices are suitable for maintaining resilience to simulated changes in regimes. Our results show that climate change would promote forest productivity and favor heat‐adapted deciduous species. Changes in natural disturbances will likely have negative impacts on native conifers and will drive changes in forest type composition. Climate change negatively impacted all resilience indicators and triggered losses of functional response diversity and connectivity across the landscape with undesirable consequences on the capacity of these forests to adapt to global change. Also, current management strategies failed to promote resilience at different spatial levels, highlighting the need for a more active and thoughtful approach to forest management under global change. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of combining dynamic landscape‐scale simulation modeling with network analyses to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change as well as human and natural disturbances on forest resilience under global change.

中文翻译：

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网络分析可以指导全球变化下森林景观中基于复原力的管理。

预计森林将在全球变化（例如气候变化和加剧的自然干扰制度）的推动下经历剧烈的成分和结构变化。未来的不确定性使森林管理计划异常困难，需要新颖的方法来维持或提高森林生态系统在干扰事件发生后做出响应并迅速重组的能力。在森林零散的森林景观中，采用景观观点尤为重要，因为在零散的森林景观中，多样性和连通性在确定对全球变化的适应力方面都起着关键作用。在这种情况下，将网络分析和功能特征与生态动态建模相结合，可以帮助评估零散景观中林分之内和之中的功能响应多样性和连通性的变化。这里，我们将生态动态建模与功能特征分析和网络理论相结合，将森林景观分析为森林斑块的互连网络。在气候，干扰和管理情景的组合下，我们模拟了加拿大魁北克南部大景观中的未来森林景观动态。我们将景观描述为一个功能网络，使用多个空间尺度上的指标评估了未来弹性的变化，并评估了当前的管理实践是否适合于维持对制度模拟变化的弹性。我们的结果表明，气候变化将促进森林生产力并有利于热适应的落叶树种。自然干扰的变化可能会对原生针叶树产生负面影响，并推动森林类型组成的变化。气候变化对所有复原力指标都产生了负面影响，并导致功能响应多样性和整个景观的连通性丧失，对这些森林适应全球变化的能力产生了不良影响。同样，当前的管理战略未能在不同的空间水平上提高适应力，突显了在全球变化下需要更积极，更周到的森林管理方法。我们的研究表明，将动态景观尺度模拟模型与网络分析相结合以评估全球变化下气候变化以及人为和自然干扰对森林复原力的可能影响是有用的。