COVID‐19, also known as SARS‐CoV‐2, is a coronavirus that is highly pathogenic and virulent. It spreads very quickly through close contact, and so in response to growing numbers of cases, many countries have imposed lockdown measures to slow its spread around the globe. The purpose of a lockdown is to reduce reproduction, that is, the number of people each confirmed case infects. Lockdown measures have worked to varying extents but they come with a massive price. Nearly every individual, community, business, and economy has been affected. In this paper, switching strategies that take into account the total “cost” borne by a community in response to COVID‐19 are proposed. The proposed cost function takes into account the health and well‐being of the population, as well as the economic impact due to the lockdown. The model allows for a comparative study to investigate the effectiveness of various COVID‐19 suppression strategies. It reveals that both the strategy to implement a lockdown and the strategy to maintain an open community are individually losing in terms of the total “cost” per day. However, switching between these two strategies in a certain manner can paradoxically lead to a winning outcome—a phenomenon attributed to Parrondo's paradox.

中文翻译：

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帕隆多悖论减轻流行病的成本：COVID-19案例研究

COVID-19，也称为SARS-CoV-2，是一种高致病性和强毒力的冠状病毒。它通过密切接触而迅速传播，因此，针对不断增加的病例，许多国家采取了封锁措施以减缓其在全球的传播。锁定的目的是为了减少繁殖，即减少每个确诊病例感染的人数。锁定措施在不同程度上起作用，但代价不菲。几乎每个人，社区，企业和经济都受到影响。在本文中，提出了考虑社区响应COVID-19的总“成本”的转换策略。拟议的成本函数考虑了人口的健康和福祉，以及由于封锁而造成的经济影响。该模型允许进行比较研究，以研究各种COVID-19抑制策略的有效性。它表明，实施锁定的策略和维持开放社区的策略在每天的总“成本”方面都在个别损失。但是，以某种方式在这两种策略之间进行切换会自相矛盾地导致获胜的结果-这种现象归因于帕隆多的悖论。