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System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States
Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 , DOI: 10.1063/5.0004710
Mark Bolinger 1 , Will Gorman 1 , Dev Millstein 1 , Dirk Jordan 2
Affiliation  

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

中文翻译:

美国公用事业规模光伏电站 21 个 GWDC 的系统级性能和退化

我们评估了 411 个公用事业规模(即 >5 MWAC 和地面安装)光伏 (PV) 项目的性能,总容量为 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC),这些项目于 2007 年至 2016 年在美国实现了商业运营. 这一系列项目贡献了 2017 年美国所有太阳能发电量的 50% 以上。我们使用有关各个项目特征的详细信息,结合模拟辐照度数据,评估实际第一年表现的程度达到建模和声明的期望。然后,我们通过采用“固定效应”回归模型来统计隔离年龄对系统性能的影响,从而分析随后几年的系统级性能下降。我们发现,这一系列公用事业规模的光伏项目总体上达到了对第一年性能的事前预期,但随后的系统级退化——发现为 -1.3%/年 (±0.2%)——平均而言,比事前预期(通常为 -0.5%/年)和过去研究的结果(从 -0.8%/年到 -1.0%/年不等)都差。我们强调 -1.3%/年是一个系统级估计,它不仅仅捕获模块退化(例如,包括污染、植物退化的平衡以及维护和/或其他事件的停机时间)。对各种项目特征的侧面分析表明,在较新的项目和较大的项目中,以及在长期平均温度较低的地点,系统级退化率往往较低。
更新日期:2020-07-01
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