Abstract Rolling contact fatigue and wear are two key damage mechanisms that govern rail life. Although there are several different mechanisms affecting both their initiation and propagation, the trade-off between them is important and their accurate predictions can provide significant benefits when planning rail maintenance activities. Through integration with vehicle dynamics simulations, damage models based on the wheel-rail contact energy (Tγ) and Shakedown theory have often been used to predict damage. In this paper, the findings from previous studies were reviewed to identify their limitations. To assess the accuracy of the predictions, their input parameters were compared for sites with and without reported RCF defects from two lines on the London Underground network. The results indicated certain variations and hence, a new wear and RCF damage prediction method was developed using a combined Shakedown Map and Tγ approach. While the wear model predictions were validated by comparison with measured rail wear, the availability of field crack depth measurements enabled the validation of the new RCF crack depth prediction model. Reasonable predictions of crack depth and wear over consecutive intervals have been achieved on various sites which increases the confidence of the models to support future optimisation of maintenance planning.

中文翻译：

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结合Shakedown Map和轮轨接触能量预测轨道损坏

摘要 滚动接触疲劳和磨损是控制钢轨寿命的两个关键损伤机制。虽然有几种不同的机制影响它们的启动和传播，但它们之间的权衡很重要，它们的准确预测可以在规划铁路维护活动时提供显着的好处。通过与车辆动力学模拟相结合，基于轮轨接触能量 (Tγ) 和 Shakedown 理论的损伤模型经常被用于预测损伤。在本文中，回顾了先前研究的结果，以确定它们的局限性。为了评估预测的准确性，对来自伦敦地铁网络两条线路的有和没有报告 RCF 缺陷的站点的输入参数进行了比较。结果表明存在某些差异，因此，使用组合 Shakedown Map 和 Tγ 方法开发了一种新的磨损和 RCF 损伤预测方法。虽然磨损模型预测是通过与测量的钢轨磨损进行比较来验证的，但现场裂纹深度测量的可用性使新的 RCF 裂纹深度预测模型得以验证。已经在各个站点上实现了连续间隔内裂纹深度和磨损的合理预测，这增加了模型的置信度，以支持未来维护计划的优化。