Abstract This paper provides the first-ever survey of the implications of violent conflict risk for planetary defense program decisions. Arguably, the aim of planetary defense should be to make Earth safer from all threats, including but not limited to threats from near-Earth objects (NEOs). Insofar as planetary defense projects affect other risks besides NEOs, these other risks should be taken into account. This paper evaluates three potential effects of planetary defense programs on violent conflict risk. First, planetary defense may offer a constructive model for addressing a major global risk. By documenting the history of its successes and failures, the planetary defense community can aid efforts to address other global risks, including but not limited to violent conflict. Second, the proposed use of nuclear explosions for NEO deflection and disruption could affect the role of nuclear weapons in violent conflict risk. The effect may be such that nuclear deflection/disruption would increase aggregate risks to human society. However, the effect is difficult to assess, mainly due to ambiguities in violent conflict risk. Third, planetary defense could reduce violent conflict risk by addressing the possibility of NEO collisions being mistaken as violent attacks and inadvertently triggering violent conflict. False alarms mistaken as real attacks are a major concern, especially as a cause of nuclear war. Improved awareness of NEOs and communication between astronomers and military officials could help resolve NEO false alarms. Each of these three effects of planetary defense programs on violent conflict risk can benefit from interaction between the communities that study and address NEO and violent conflict risks.

中文翻译：

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在行星防御决策中考虑暴力冲突风险

摘要 本文首次调查了暴力冲突风险对行星防御计划决策的影响。可以说，行星防御的目标应该是使地球更安全，免受所有威胁，包括但不限于来自近地天体 (NEO) 的威胁。就行星防御项目影响近地天体以外的其他风险而言，应考虑这些其他风险。本文评估了行星防御计划对暴力冲突风险的三个潜在影响。首先，行星防御可以为解决重大全球风险提供建设性模型。通过记录其成功和失败的历史，行星防御界可以帮助解决其他全球风险的努力，包括但不限于暴力冲突。第二，使用核爆炸进行近地天体偏转和破坏的提议可能会影响核武器在暴力冲突风险中的作用。其影响可能是核偏转/中断会增加人类社会的总体风险。然而，影响难以评估，主要是由于暴力冲突风险的模糊性。第三，行星防御可以通过解决近地天体碰撞被误认为是暴力袭击并在不经意间引发暴力冲突的可能性来降低暴力冲突风险。误报被误认为是真正的攻击是一个主要问题，尤其是作为核战争的起因。提高对近地天体的认识以及天文学家与军方官员之间的沟通有助于解决近地天体的误报。