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Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in the middle twenty-first century (2020–2050) as projected by RegCM4 forced by two CMIP5 global climate models
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-30 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03364-4
Ya Huang , Weihua Xiao , Guibing Hou , Ling Yi , Yuanyuan Li , Yuyan Zhou

Changes in summer and diurnal precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in the middle of the twenty-first century were estimated by RegCM4 with a resolution of 50 km under two representative concentration pathway scenarios. ERA-Interim, CSIRO-MK3.6.0 and MPI-ESM-MR were used as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and two observation data sets (CN05.1 and CRU) were used to evaluate the precipitation performance. RegCM4 captured the spatial characteristics of summer precipitation in the UYRB during the reference period. Compared with the two observational data sets, the three groups of downscaling results underestimated the precipitation in the eastern part of the basin by 20% and overestimated that in the west by more than 80%. In the middle of the twenty-first century, the total precipitation (TPR) in the UYRB varied significantly from east to west. The multiyear average TPR in the eastern plains was projected to significantly decrease, while it significantly increased in the western mountains. As a major contributor to the TPR in the UYRB, convective precipitation (CPR) differed between the eastern and western regions, especially at night. The TPR changes in the east (decrease) and west (increase) were projected to be strongest in the afternoon. The probability of high-intensity precipitation in the central and western areas will increase, implying a potential increase in the risk of flooding in these areas. The diametric changes in the TPR between the east and west may further exacerbate the spatial heterogeneity of water resources, resulting in large impacts to surface hydrological processes. The spatial variations in precipitation were mainly due to the variation in precipitation mechanisms between the western mountainous area and the eastern basin, while the changes in water vapour transport and atmospheric stability also played a role.



中文翻译:

根据RegCM4的预测,在两个CMIP5全球气候模式的推动下,二十世纪中叶(2020-2050年)长江流域上游夏季夏季和季节性降水类型的变化

在两种代表性的集中路径情景下,RegCM4估计了二十世纪中叶长江流域上游地区夏季和夏季降水的变化,其分辨率为50 km。使用ERA-Interim,CSIRO-MK3.6.0和MPI-ESM-MR作为初始和横向边界条件,并使用两个观测数据集(CN05.1和CRU)来评估降水表现。RegCM4捕获了参考期内UYRB夏季降水的空间特征。与两个观测数据集相比,三组降尺度结果低估了盆地东部的降水量20%,高估了西部的降水量80%以上。在二十一世纪中叶,UYRB中的总降水量(TPR)从东到西变化很大。东部平原的多年平均TPR预计将显着降低,而西部山区则将显着提高。作为UYRB中TPR的主要贡献者,东部和西部地区的对流降水(CPR)有所不同,尤其是在晚上。东部地区(减少)和西部地区(增加)的TPR变化预计在下午最为强烈。中西部地区发生高强度降水的可能性将增加,这意味着这些地区发生洪灾的可能性可能增加。东西方TPR的直径变化可能会进一步加剧水资源的空间异质性,从而对地表水文过程产生重大影响。

更新日期:2020-08-30
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