Cities in tropical regions, already hot, will experience more days of extreme heat as the climate changes. While many people adapt to heat, some find high temperatures unbearable, particularly if coupled with high humidity. One adaptation strategy is to move to cooler regions but empirical evidence for this happening is lacking. This study aims to assess 1) the extent to which heat influences migration intentions of people living in the tropical city of Darwin, Australia, relative to other drivers, and 2) the type of people most likely to leave because of heat. We conducted a best-worst-scaling in a mail-drop off survey (4800 questionnaires, 14 % response rate) and, overall, heat (coupled with humidity) was the third most important reason for emigration after ‘moving closer to family and friends’ and ‘high local living costs’, both being about 15 % more important than heat. We found a strong age-effect. For young people employment was the main reason for intended emigration. Heat became more important than employment as a reason to emigrate for people 50 years and older, and was the most important reason to leave in the oldest age bracket (> 69 years).

随着气候的变化，已经很热的热带地区的城市将经历更多的极端高温。尽管许多人会适应热，但有些人却发现难以忍受的高温，尤其是如果加上高湿度的话。一种适应策略是转移到较凉爽的地区，但缺乏这种情况的经验证据。这项研究旨在评估1）相对于其他驾驶员，热量对居住在澳大利亚热带城市达尔文的人们的迁徙意图的影响程度；以及2）最可能因高温而离开的人群的类型。我们在邮件投递调查中进行了最糟糕的规模评估（4800份问卷，回复率为14％），总体上，热量（加湿气）是继“与家人和朋友离近后”移居的第三重要原因。以及“当地生活成本高昂”，两者都比热量重要约15％。我们发现了强烈的年龄效应。对于年轻人来说，就业是有意移民的主要原因。发热量比就业更重要，因为它是50岁及50岁以上人口移民的原因，并且是离开年龄最大的年龄段（> 69岁）的最重要原因。