Extensive dependence of the national economy on wasteful fossil fuel use as well as limited access to the international financial markets and the best available techniques over the strict economic sanctions period have hindered Iran from developing a sustainable energy system. By considering the reversal order, the present study investigated the least-cost options for improving energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions in the energy supply sector. The essential purpose of this research work is to increase the evidence base necessary to inform policy and strategy discussions within Iran and related communities concerning the choice of GHG emissions reduction. Applying ARDL approach to project demand data besides running the bottom-up technology-rich optimization model of MESSAGEix over the 2016–2030 period help to tackle the transparency challenge of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by Iran. The research results suggest that improving the efficiency of fossil-fueled power plants to 46% besides curbing routine gas flaring by 2030 could well cover the Iranian unconditional and conditional contributions in the energy sector to cut GHG emissions by 12% compared to the business-as-usual pattern. Ensuring technical and financial supports, Iran can undertake the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under the Paris Agreement, in line with the national policies to reduce energy intensity.

国民经济对化石燃料浪费的广泛依赖，以及进入国际金融市场的机会有限，以及在严格的经济制裁期间可获得的最佳技术，都阻碍了伊朗发展可持续的能源系统。通过考虑逆序，本研究调查了在能源供应部门中提高能源效率和减少温室气体排放的成本最低的方案。这项研究工作的主要目的是增加必要的证据基础，以为伊朗和相关社区内有关减少温室气体排放选择的政策和战略讨论提供参考。除了在2016-2030年期间运行MESSAGEix的自底向上技术丰富的优化模型之外，将ARDL方法应用于项目需求数据还有助于应对伊朗提交的国家自主贡献计划（INDC）的透明度挑战。研究结果表明，到2030年将化石燃料发电厂的效率提高到46％，除了遏制常规的天然气燃烧外，还可以很好地弥补伊朗在能源领域的无条件和有条件贡献，从而将温室气体排放量与企业相比降低了12％。 -通常模式。为了确保技术和财政支持，伊朗可以根据《巴黎协定》，根据国家降低能源强度的政策，进行预期的国家自主贡献。研究结果表明，到2030年将化石燃料发电厂的效率提高到46％，除了抑制常规的天然气燃烧外，还可以很好地弥补伊朗在能源部门的无条件和有条件贡献，与商业化经营相比将温室气体排放减少了12％。 -通常的模式。为了确保技术和财政支持，伊朗可以根据《巴黎协定》，根据国家降低能源强度的政策，进行预期的国家自主贡献。研究结果表明，到2030年将化石燃料发电厂的效率提高到46％，除了遏制常规的天然气燃烧外，还可以很好地弥补伊朗在能源领域的无条件和有条件贡献，从而将温室气体排放量与企业相比降低了12％。 -通常模式。为了确保技术和财政支持，伊朗可以根据《巴黎协定》，根据国家降低能源强度的政策，进行预期的国家自主贡献。