Climate change is predicted to threaten biodiversity and the distribution and abundance of species. In Africa and other developing regions, changing distributions and abundances of tree species may have profound effects on livelihoods. The aims of the study were to determine the current continuous distribution of African wild loquat (Uapaca kirkiana Müll. Arg., Phyllanthaceae) and to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of the species. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to generate models of the current distribution and for projections under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). After resampling and correlation analysis, models were generated using 84 occurrence records and nine environmental variables. Results showed that the species has a current continuous distribution in the range of miombo woodlands of south-central Africa, in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Zambia. Projections showed suitable habitat contracting under most RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Range contraction was especially acute under a scenario of no mitigation of greenhouse gas emission, that is RCP8.5. In 2050, the range of the species was forecasted to contract by − 13.9% (RCP2.6), − 5.8% (RCP4.5) and − 14.9% (RCP8.5), with a slight expansion of 1.3% under RCP6.0. In 2070, the range was forecasted to contract by − 17.6% (RCP2.6), − 16.4% (RCP4.5), − 3.7% (RCP6.0) and − 20.6% (RCP8.5). Domestication and establishment in protected areas are some options to mitigate against the forecasted contraction of the natural range of the species.

中文翻译：

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气候变化减少了非洲中南部非洲野生lo（Uapaca kirkianaMüll。Arg。，Phyllanthaceae）的自然分布

预计气候变化将威胁生物多样性以及物种的分布和丰富度。在非洲和其他发展中地区，不断变化的树种分布和丰富度可能对生计产生深远影响。该研究的目的是确定非洲continuous的当前连续分布（Uapaca kirkiana米尔 Arg。，Phyllanthaceae）并预测气候变化对物种未来分布的影响。使用最大熵方法（Maxent）生成电流分布模型，并生成不同代表性浓度途径（RCP）下的投影。经过重新采样和相关分析后，使用84个出现记录和9个环境变量生成了模型。结果表明，该物种在非洲中南部的米诺博林地范围内，在安哥拉，刚果民主共和国南部，马拉维，莫桑比克，坦桑尼亚，津巴布韦和赞比亚的部分地区，目前具有连续分布。预测显示，在2050年和2070年的大多数RCP下，适宜的栖息地收缩。在不减少温室气体排放（RCP8.5）的情况下，范围收缩尤为严重。在2050年，预计该物种的范围将缩小-13.9％（RCP2.6），-5.8％（RCP4.5）和-14.9％（RCP8.5），在RCP6.0下将略微增长1.3％。到2070年，预测范围将缩小-17.6％（RCP2.6），-16.4％（RCP4.5），-3.7％（RCP6.0）和-20.6％（RCP8.5）。保护区的驯化和建立是减轻物种自然范围的预期收缩的一些选择。