The sustainability of livestock systems can be assessed through their productive and environmental performance, the ecosystem services they provide or their resilience to hazards. We used a modelling approach to assess how key economic performance indicators respond to technical and market hazards in five different meat-sheep farms, across France and Ireland. Hazards were related to seven technical or economic variables: ewe fertility, prolificacy, lamb mortality, prices of light and heavy lambs, concentrate use and energy use. We used a mechanistic model to simulate farm functioning and assess farm performance over 3000 iterations, based on simultaneous random draws with hazards to the previously mentioned seven variables. We quantified this way (i) the compensatory effects of different types of technical and economic mechanisms that lead to more stable economic performance and (ii) the probability of economic collapse of meat-sheep farms through a diachronic analysis. We showed that variations in technical variables have larger effects on income variability than variations in economic variables. We also showed that the most resilient systems, i.e. those with the lowest coefficient of variation of net income, are those that combine a low level of inputs with at least two lambing periods per year. Short duration of pregnancy in ewes makes multiperiod lambing possible, which can buffer the variability of technical variables and enhance the adaptive capability of the system by offering the possibility to move empty ewes to a new batch for re-mating. We thus analysed for the first time farm economic resilience to combined technical and economic hazards, and highlighted the buffer and adaptive mechanisms of resilience, with a mechanistic model.

中文翻译：

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评估羊肉农场经济弹性的缓冲和适应机制

牲畜系统的可持续性可以通过其生产和环境绩效，它们提供的生态系统服务或对灾害的抵御能力进行评估。我们使用一种建模方法来评估关键经济绩效指标如何响应法国和爱尔兰五个不同的肉羊场的技术和市场危害。危害与七个技术或经济变量有关：母羊的繁殖力，繁殖力，羔羊死亡率，轻，重羔羊的价格，精矿利用和能源利用。我们使用机械模型来模拟服务器场功能，并基于对前面提到的七个变量具有危害的同时随机抽取，在3000次迭代中评估服务器场性能。我们通过这种方式量化了（i）通过不同类型的技术和经济机制产生的补偿效应，这些补偿机制可导致更稳定的经济表现，以及（ii）通过历时分析得出肉羊场经济崩溃的可能性。我们发现，技术变量的变化比经济变量的变化对收入可变性的影响更大。我们还表明，最具弹性的系统（即，净收入变动系数最低的系统）是那些将投入水平较低且每年至少有两个生育期的系统。母羊的短期妊娠使多周期产羔成为可能，这可以缓冲技术变量的变化并通过提供将空母羊移至新批次重新配对的能力来增强系统的适应能力。