1. Global biodiversity is increasingly threatened by habitat loss, climate change, and biological invasion. However, predictions of impacts on native fauna are hampered by an inadequate knowledge of how these factors interact and how climate change will affect the distribution, abundance, and behaviour of both native and invasive species, not least as most predictions are based on the long‐term effects of temperature alone.
2. Here, we present a case study illustrating how local‐scale climate change impacts (increased temperature, reduced rainfall, shifts in peak rainfall) affected the hydrology of a channelised lowland European river (reduced flow, reduction in flood events, increased siltation, macrophyte growth), allowing native fish species to recolonise the bankside zone and reducing the density of invasive round goby Neogobius melanostomus by removing its preferred habitat.
3. While most studies predict long‐term negative impacts on global fish populations, some suggest potential direct and indirect benefits at a local scale. We are of the opinion that, at a local scale, climate change impacts on fish will be more nuanced and complex than long‐term predictions suggest, resulting in both positive and negative effects, with consolation prizes in the face of larger losses. While impacts on fish will differ between regions and/or continents, depending on the specific impacts of climate change, identification of positive effects will be essential in clarifying long‐range forecasts and identifying management procedures for mitigating overall negative impacts.

中文翻译：

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扭转潮流？气候变化对当地的影响可能会通过恢复自然河流栖息地和降低侵入性鱼类密度而产生积极影响

1. 全球生物多样性正日益受到栖息地丧失，气候变化和生物入侵的威胁。但是，对这些因素如何相互作用以及气候变化将如何影响本地和入侵物种的分布，丰度和行为的了解不足，阻碍了对本地动物的影响的预测，尤其是因为大多数预测都是基于长期的研究。温度的长期影响。
2. 在这里，我们提供一个案例研究，说明当地尺度的气候变化影响（温度升高，降雨量减少，峰值降雨量的变化）如何影响欧洲通道低地河流的水文状况（流量减少，洪水事件减少，淤积增加，大型植物生长） ），使本地鱼类能够重新定居河岸区，并通过移走其首选栖息地来降低侵入性圆虾虎鱼新黑粉虱的密度。
3. 尽管大多数研究预测会对全球鱼类种群造成长期负面影响，但一些研究表明，在地方规模上可能产生直接或间接的好处。我们认为，在本地范围内，气候变化对鱼类的影响将比长期预测所暗示的更加细微和复杂，从而产生积极和消极的影响，面对更大的损失将获得安慰奖。尽管不同地区和/或大洲对鱼类的影响会有所不同，但取决于气候变化的具体影响，识别积极影响对于澄清长期预报和确定减轻总体负面影响的管理程序至关重要。