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Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal link
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-25 , DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020
Massimo Melillo , Stefano Luigi Gariano , Silvia Peruccacci , Roberto Sarro , Rosa Marìa Mateos , Maria Teresa Brunetti

Rockfalls are frequent and harmful phenomena occurring in mountain ranges, coastal cliffs, and slope cuts. Although several natural processes occur in their formation and triggering, rainfall is one of the most common causes. The prediction of rock failures is of social significance for civil protection purposes and can rely on the statistical analysis of past rainfall conditions that caused the failures. The paper describes the analysis of information on rainfall-induced rockfalls in Gran Canaria and Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). An analysis of the monthly rainfall versus the monthly distribution of rockfalls reveals that they are correlated for most of the year, except in summer, when other triggers act to induce collapses. National and regional catalogs with hourly and daily rainfall measurements are used to reconstruct the cumulated amount (E) and the duration (D) of the rainfall responsible for the rock failures. Adopting a consolidated statistical approach, new ED rainfall thresholds for possible rockfall occurrence and the associated uncertainties are calculated for the two test sites. As far as is known, this is the first attempt to predict this type of failure using the threshold approach. Using the rainfall information, a map of the mean annual rainfall is obtained for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and it is used to assess the differences between the thresholds. The results of this study are expected to improve the ability to forecast rockfalls in the Canary Islands in view of implementing an early-warning system to mitigate the rockfall hazard and reduce the associated risk.

中文翻译:

加那利群岛的降雨和落石:评估季节性联系

落石是经常发生的有害现象,发生在山脉,沿海悬崖和斜坡上。尽管在形成和触发过程中会发生几种自然过程,但降雨是最常见的原因之一。岩石破坏的预测对于民防目的具有社会意义,可以依靠对造成破坏的过去降雨条件的统计分析。本文介绍了加那利群岛(西班牙)大加那利岛和特内里费岛降雨引起的落石信息的分析。对每月降雨量与落石量每月分布的分析表明,除夏季以外,一年中的大部分时间里它们都是相关的,夏季除外,因为其他触发因素会引起塌方。E)和造成岩石破坏的降雨持续时间( D)。采用统一的统计方法, 针对两个测试地点计算了可能发生的落石事件的新的E D降雨阈值以及相关的不确定性。据了解,这是使用阈值方法预测此类故障的首次尝试。利用降雨信息,获得大加那利岛和特内里费岛的年平均降雨量图,并用于评估阈值之间的差异。鉴于实施早期预警系统以减轻岩崩危险并降低相关风险,这项研究的结果有望提高加那利群岛岩崩的预测能力。
更新日期:2020-08-25
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