Abstract. The design of coastal protection measures and the quantification of coastal risks at locations affected by tropical cyclone (TC) are often based solely on the analysis of historical cyclone tracks. Due to data scarcity and the random nature of TCs, the assumption that future TCs could hit a neighboring area with equal likelihood than past events can potentially lead to over- and/or underestimations of extremes and associated risks. The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on (historical) data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed. The method has been implemented in the highly flexible open-source Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE uses an Empirical Track Model based on Markov-chains and can simulate thousands of synthetic TC tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any (historical) data source. Moreover, the tool can be used to determine the wind extremes and the output can be used for the reliable assessment of coastal hazards. Validation results for the Gulf of Mexico show that TC patterns and extreme wind speeds are well reproduced by TCWiSE.

中文翻译：

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模拟合成的热带气旋路径，以进行统计可靠的风压估算

摘要。在热带气旋（TC）影响的地区，沿海保护措施的设计和沿海风险的量化通常仅基于对历史气旋轨迹的分析。由于数据稀缺和TC的随机性，关于未来TC可能以与过去事件相同的可能性袭击邻近地区的假设可能导致对极端情况和相关风险的高估和/或低估。基于（历史）数据的许多合成TC磁道的仿真可以克服此限制。本文提出了一种新的合成TC轨道生成方法。该方法已在高度灵活的开源热带气旋风统计估计工具（TCWiSE）中实现。TCWiSE使用基于马尔可夫链的经验航迹模型，并且可以基于任何（历史）数据源在任何大洋盆地中模拟成千上万个合成TC航迹和风场。此外，该工具可用于确定极端风，输出可用于可靠评估沿海灾害。墨西哥湾的验证结果表明，TCWiSE很好地再现了TC模式和极端风速。