The projection of climate change impacts can be very crucial for water resources planning and management. Hashtgerd plain is an immigrant destination due to socio-economic development and its proximity to the Tehran metropolis. The population growth has led to more water demand, resulting in excessive utilization of groundwater resources and water shortages in the agricultural sector. The water shortage and climate change in Hashtgerd plain could lead to more severe water crisis in the future. Therefore, this study aimed to provide adaptation strategies for minimizing the negative effects of climate change by taking into account the interaction between different sub-systems in Hashtgerd plain during 2020–2049 period. In order to assess the climate change impacts, the output of 19 AOGCMs models was used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. A comprehensive model was developed based on the system dynamics theory to investigate the interactions of water resources, agriculture, and socio-economic sub-systems and were used to investigate the impacts of climate change and evaluate various adaptation strategies on different sub-systems of the region. The simulation results showed the negative effects of climate change will intensify the water shortage in Hashtgerd Plain. The agricultural sector will be more vulnerable to climate change than the domestic and industrial sectors. The results of various policies showed that improving water use efficiency coupled with reducing the cultivation of high-consumption crops and changing the cropping pattern towards lower water requirement plants can effectively minimize the adverse impacts of climate change on water shortages in agriculture.

气候变化影响的预测对于水资源规划和管理至关重要。由于社会经济发展及其与德黑兰大都市的邻近，哈斯特格平原是一个移民目的地。人口增长导致对水的需求增加，导致地下水资源的过度利用和农业部门的水短缺。Hashtgerd平原的水资源短缺和气候变化可能会在未来导致更严重的水资源危机。因此，本研究旨在通过考虑2020-2049年期间哈斯格德平原不同子系统之间的相互作用，提供使气候变化的负面影响最小化的适应策略。为了评估气候变化影响，在RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8下使用了19个AOGCM模型的输出。5种排放情景。基于系统动力学理论开发了一个综合模型，以调查水资源，农业和社会经济子系统之间的相互作用，并用于调查气候变化的影响并评估针对该子系统不同子系统的各种适应策略。地区。模拟结果表明，气候变化的负面影响将加剧哈什格德平原的缺水情况。与家庭和工业部门相比，农业部门将更容易受到气候变化的影响。