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A 30-m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-24 , DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2020-241
Raphaël Cécé , Didier Bernard , Yann Krien , Frédéric Leone , Thomas Candela , Matthieu Péroche , Emmanuel Biabiany , Gael Arnaud , Ali Belmadani , Philippe Palany , Narcisse Zahibo

Abstract. In view of the high vulnerability of the Lesser Antilles small islands to cyclonic hazards, realistic very fine scale numerical simulation of hurricane-induced winds is essential to prevent and manage risks. The present innovative modeling aims at combining the most realistic simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Nonlinear Backscatter and Anisotropy (NBA) Large Eddy Simulation (LES) configuration was used to reconstruct the devastating landfall of category 5 Hurricane Irma (2017) on Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin islands. The results pointed out that the 30-m scale seems necessary to simulate intense 400-m scale vortices leading to extreme peak gusts like 132 m s−1 over sea. Risk areas associated with terrain gust speed-up factors greater than one have been identified for the two islands. The comparison between the simulated gusts and the remote sensing building damages highlighted the major role of structure strength linked with the socio-economic development of the territory. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damages and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.

中文翻译:

在小安的列斯群岛非常小的山区岛屿上进行的飓风艾尔玛(2017)登陆期间的极端阵风的30米比例模型

摘要。鉴于小安的列斯群岛的小岛极易遭受气旋灾害,因此,对飓风引起的风进行非常精细的数值模拟,对于预防和管理风险至关重要。当前的创新模型旨在将眼墙内龙卷风尺度漩涡驱动的最逼真的模拟最强阵风与最逼真的复杂地形效果相结合。具有非线性背向散射和各向异性(NBA)大涡模拟(LES)配置的天气研究和预报(WRF)模型用于在圣巴塞洛缪岛和圣马丁岛上重建5级飓风艾尔玛(2017年)的毁灭性登陆。结果指出,30 m的尺度似乎是模拟400 m尺度的强烈涡旋所必需的,从而导致极端峰值阵风(例如132 m s)-1在海上。对于两个岛屿,已经确定了与地形阵风加速因子相关的大于1的风险区域。模拟阵风与遥感建筑破坏之间的比较突出了结构强度与该地区社会经济发展相关的主要作用。本建模方法可以轻松地扩展到其他小山岛上,以增进对观察到的过去破坏的了解,并开发更安全的城市管理和适当的建筑标准。
更新日期:2020-08-24
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