Abstract. The Azores is an active volcanic region that offers exceptional conditions for nature-based tourism, one of the main axes of economic growth in this region. A future volcanic eruption in the archipelago may have long-term consequences to this economic sector. Therefore, it is fundamental to assess its vulnerability to volcanic hazards in order to try to mitigate the associated risk. This study proposes a new approach to assess the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector. We considered two eruptive scenarios for Fogo volcano (São Miguel Island), the most probable (VEI 4 sub-Plinian eruption) and the worst-case (VEI 5 Plinian eruption), both producing tephra fallout and PDCs. The results of numerical simulations were overlaid with tourism-related buildings and infrastructure of Vila Franca do Campo municipality to identify the elements at risk. The Loss Present Value method was used to estimate the benefits generated by the accommodation units over 30 years for different economic scenarios. The assessment of the economic impact using 2018 indicators reveals that in a near total destruction scenario the economic loss is approximately 145 million euros. Such approach can also be adopted to other volcanic regions, other geologic hazards and other economic sectors.

中文翻译：

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评估Fogo火山爆发爆发（亚速尔群岛圣米格尔岛）对旅游经济的影响

摘要。亚速尔群岛是一个活跃的火山地区，为自然旅游提供了特殊条件，这是该地区经济增长的主要轴心之一。群岛上未来的火山喷发可能对该经济部门产生长期影响。因此，评估其对火山灾害的脆弱性以试图减轻相关风险至关重要。这项研究提出了一种新的方法来评估爆炸性爆发对旅游业的经济影响。我们考虑了Fogo火山（圣米格尔岛）的两种喷发情况，最可能的是（VEI 4次普利尼亚喷发）和最坏的情况（VEI 5普利尼安喷发），都产生了特菲拉辐射和PDC。数值模拟的结果覆盖在与旅游相关的建筑物和维拉弗兰卡杜坎波市的基础设施上，以识别有风险的要素。损失现值法用于估计住宿单位在30年中针对不同经济情景所产生的收益。使用2018年指标进行的经济影响评估显示，在几乎完全销毁的情况下，经济损失约为1.45亿欧元。这种方法也可用于其他火山地区，其他地质灾害和其他经济部门。使用2018年指标进行的经济影响评估显示，在几乎完全销毁的情况下，经济损失约为1.45亿欧元。这种方法也可用于其他火山地区，其他地质灾害和其他经济部门。使用2018年指标进行的经济影响评估显示，在几乎完全销毁的情况下，经济损失约为1.45亿欧元。这种方法也可用于其他火山地区，其他地质灾害和其他经济部门。