Few studies have tracked the long-term mental health outcomes following major disaster. We sought to document the trajectories of depressive symptoms and post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in the aftermath of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami. A cohort of community-dwelling older adults were followed for 5.5 years after the disaster at 3 waves (2010, 2013 and 2016). Depressive symptoms were measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale Short Form, while PTSS was assessed by the Screening Questionnaire for Disaster Mental Health. We examined the trajectories of mental illness symptoms based on the probabilities of persistence, recovery, and delayed onset. Among people without pre-disaster depressive symptoms, 13.6% had developed depressive symptoms 2.5 years after the disaster. Of these, half of those had recovered and half had persisted at the 5.5 year follow-up. 11.1% of survivors reported post-traumatic stress symptoms in 2013; of these, 58% recovered by 2016, while 4.8% experienced delayed onset. Job loss was associated with persistent PTSS (OR 2.03; 95%CI 1.01-4.12) while a drop in subjective economic status predicted delayed onset of PTSS (OR 2.13; 1.34-3.39). However, disaster-related experiences were unrelated to the trajectory of depressive symptoms at 5.5 years. The probabilities of remission (58%) and delayed onset (5%) of PTSS are consistent with prior disaster research. The experience of job loss and drop in subjective economic status appeared to exert a lingering influence on the persistence or delayed onset of PTSS. Depressive symptoms after the disaster had remitted in roughly half of the survivors after 5.5 years.

很少有研究跟踪重大灾难后的长期心理健康结果。我们试图记录 2011 年东日本大地震和海啸后抑郁症状和创伤后应激症状 (PTSS) 的轨迹。灾难发生后，一组居住在社区的老年人在 3 波（2010 年、2013 年和 2016 年）被跟踪了 5.5 年。抑郁症状通过老年抑郁量表简表测量，而 PTSS 则通过灾难心理健康筛查问卷进行评估。我们根据持续、恢复和延迟发作的概率检查了精神疾病症状的轨迹。在没有灾前抑郁症状的人群中，13.6% 的人在灾后 2.5 年出现抑郁症状。这些，其中一半已经康复，一半在 5.5 年的随访中持续存在。11.1% 的幸存者在 2013 年报告了创伤后应激症状；其中，58% 到 2016 年康复，而 4.8% 出现延迟发作。失业与持续性 PTSS 相关（OR 2.03；95%CI 1.01-4.12），而主观经济状况的下降预示着 PTSS 的延迟发作（OR 2.13；1.34-3.39）。然而，与灾难相关的经历与 5.5 年时的抑郁症状轨迹无关。PTSS 缓解 (58%) 和延迟发作 (5%) 的概率与先前的灾害研究一致。失业和主观经济地位下降的经历似乎对 PTSS 的持续性或延迟发作产生挥之不去的影响。大约一半的幸存者在 5.5 年后，灾难后的抑郁症状得到缓解。