As increased pore pressure due to rainwater infiltration is the primary triggering factor for landslides, rainfall is normally established as the first condition that allows definition of the predictability of their occurrence over the short term for a determined location. It is therefore common to propose landslide occurrence predictions based on awareness of accumulated background rainfall from historic data analysis. This paper proposes that landslide occurrence be predicted by quantitatively estimating their probabilities based on accumulated rainfall during a pair of time frames (e.g., 24 and 72 h) prior to the event, with selection determined by statistical dependence readings. This method was applied to the Quitandinha river basin region in the municipality of Petrópolis, Brazil, using background data from 2003 to 2009. It was observed that landslide occurrence presented the highest relevance level with the two accumulated rainfall periods of 24 and 96 h, and it was possible to estimate the probability of occurrence of at least one, three, or five landslides depending on the accumulated rainfall rates during these time frames.

中文翻译：

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用于定义适用于巴西彼得罗波利斯 Quitandinha 河流域的降雨阈值的滑坡发生可能性

由于雨水渗入引起的孔隙压力增加是滑坡的主要触发因素，因此降雨通常被确定为第一个条件，可以定义确定位置的短期内发生的可预测性。因此，通常根据历史数据分析对累积背景降雨的认识来提出滑坡发生预测。本文建议通过基于事件发生前一对时间范围内（例如 24 和 72 小时）的累积降雨量定量估计滑坡发生的概率来预测滑坡发生，并通过统计相关读数确定选择。使用 2003 年至 2009 年的背景数据，将该方法应用于巴西彼得罗波利斯市的 Quitandinha 河流域地区。