Abstract

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.

Methods

Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.

Results

Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R₀ > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20–64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.

Conclusions

Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0–5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.

中文翻译：

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估计呼吸道合胞病毒的传播参数并预测母婴疫苗接种的影响。

摘要

背景

呼吸道合胞病毒 (RSV) 是导致幼儿呼吸道疾病的主要原因，也是全球住院的主要原因。

方法

在这里，我们将具有免疫传播的年龄结构传播模型拟合到来自荷兰（2012-2017 年）的数据。数据包括全国范围内确诊 RSV 的住院人数、关于急性呼吸道感染就诊的全科医生 (GP) 数据以及 GP 对急性呼吸道感染的病毒学检测。配备关键参数估计值的传播模型用于预测母婴疫苗接种的影响。

结果

基本再生数的估计值普遍较高（在具有高统计支持的情况下，R ₀ > 10），而估计非老年人的易感性较低（20-64 岁人群<10%），老年人的易感性较高（ ≥65 岁）。情景分析预测，母亲接种疫苗可降低易感婴儿（<1 岁）的感染发生率，并将首次感染的年龄从婴儿转移到幼儿。

结论

儿科疫苗接种有望降低婴幼儿（0-5 岁）的感染发生率，略微增加 5 至 9 岁儿童的感染率，并具有较小的间接益处。