This study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the species Rosa canina L. (rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km² are currently ‘highly suitable’ for Rosa canina L., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km² by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km² by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species.

中文翻译：

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当前和未来气候条件下玫瑰果（Rosa canina L.）的分布

这项研究旨在模拟罗莎犬种的潜在分布区域。（玫瑰果），并在给定的气候变化情景下预测和分析其分布的未来可能变化。将来自WorldClim数据库的19个生物气候变量应用于180个已知物种的存在位置，并使用MaxEnt识别了当前条件下物种的潜在分布区域。为了确定该物种在气候变化影响下的未来地理分布，使用了社区气候系统模型（CCSM ver。4）。气候变化情景摘自根据政府间气候变化专门委员会《第五次评估报告》制定的2050年和2070年的代表性浓度途径（RCP）4.5和RCP 8.5情景。此外，进行了变化分析，以识别该物种当前和未来潜在分布之间的面积和位置的精确差异，并指定栖息地获得，栖息地丧失和稳定栖息地。最后，进行了折刀试验，以确定哪些个体生物气候变量对物种的地理分布影响最大。研究发现，总面积为170,596公里目前有^2个区域非常适合Rosa canina L.，但是到2070年RCP 4.5场景将缩小到114,474 km ²，到2070年RCP 8.5场景缩小到41,146 km ²。最湿季的平均温度是影响物种分布的最具影响力的生物气候变量。