Estimating demographic parameters is essential to assessing the recovery potential of severely depleted populations of marine mammal species such as the baleen whales, which were decimated by commercial whaling of the past century. The Oceania humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae population is classified as endangered by the IUCN because of low numbers and a slow recovery rate. Nevertheless, an anomalously strong increase has recently been detected in the New Caledonia breeding population. To determine the drivers of population growth, reproductive parameters were estimated for the first time for a humpback whale population of Oceania. Based on an extensive monitoring program (1995-2018), recapture histories were reconstructed for 607 females and incorporated in multi-event capture-recapture models. As the females’ ages were generally unknown (87%), 2 models with contrasting age scenarios were investigated. For females of unknown age, the mature scenario assumed maturity at the first encounter, while the immature scenario assumed immaturity within 7 yr after the first encounter, unless the female was encountered breeding. These models respectively resulted in a calving interval of 1.49 yr (95% CI: 1.21-2.08) or 2.83 yr (95% CI: 2.28-3.56) and a calving rate of 0.67 or 0.35. The relatively high calving rate modelled by the mature model is consistent with high pregnancy rates recently observed in the migratory corridors of the Kermadec Islands and on the feeding grounds of the Antarctic Peninsula. Therefore, our results suggest that the recovery of the New Caledonia humpback whale population from past exploitation may be partially driven by an increased reproductive capacity.

中文翻译：

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南半球濒临灭绝和正在恢复的座头鲸种群的繁殖能力

估计人口参数对于评估严重枯竭的海洋哺乳动物种群（例如须鲸）的恢复潜力至关重要，这些种群在上个世纪因商业捕鲸而大量减少。大洋洲座头鲸 Megaptera novaeangliae 种群由于数量少和恢复速度缓慢而被 IUCN 列为濒危物种。然而，最近在新喀里多尼亚繁殖种群中发现了异常强劲的增长。为了确定人口增长的驱动因素，首次估计了大洋洲座头鲸种群的繁殖参数。基于广泛的监测计划（1995-2018），重建了 607 名女性的再捕获历史，并纳入了多事件捕获-再捕获模型。由于女性的年龄普遍未知 (87%)，因此研究了 2 个具有不同年龄场景的模型。对于年龄未知的雌性，成熟情景假定在第一次相遇时成熟，而未成熟情景假定在首次相遇后 7 年内未成熟，除非遇到雌性繁殖。这些模型分别导致产犊间隔为 1.49 年（95% CI：1.21-2.08）或 2.83 年（95% CI：2.28-3.56），产犊率为 0.67 或 0.35。成熟模型模拟的相对较高的产犊率与最近在克马德克群岛的迁徙走廊和南极半岛的觅食地观察到的高怀孕率是一致的。所以，