ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to have strong effects on river systems and their biota. It is unlikely that a changing climate will be the only stressor on river systems to increase in the future. Human population growth will necessitate increased resource use including agricultural intensification. Understanding how climate change will interact with agricultural intensification to affect river systems is important for effective management. We used a spatially explicit, habitat-based life cycle model, Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment (EDT), to examine the effects of climate change and agricultural intensification scenarios on the performance of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in a Columbia River Subbasin. Climate change had strong negative impacts on basin-wide abundance, habitat capacity, productivity, and life-history diversity of steelhead, with the largest impacts under the most severe climate scenarios. Agricultural intensification also had strong negative effects on steelhead performance, particularly under the most severe scenario of complete removal of riparian buffers in crop production areas. When combined, both stressors had interactive effects on steelhead. The egg incubation stage was the most vulnerable to both stressors. Spawning adults were also strongly affected by climate change, whereas overwintering parr were affected by agricultural intensification. EDT modeling allowed an identification of areas within the subbasin most vulnerable to these stressors, as well as areas that are strongholds of productivity under future conditions. Finally, model results revealed that the most important areas to protect against both climate and agricultural change are not necessarily the same as those identified as high priority areas for protection and restoration under current conditions.

中文翻译：

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气候变化和农业集约化对哥伦比亚河内陆地区黑头麦cor的协同效应

摘要：预计气候变化将对河流系统及其生物区系产生重大影响。气候的变化不太可能成为未来河流系统增加的唯一压力。人口的增长将需要增加资源利用，包括农业集约化。了解气候变化将如何与农业集约化相互作用以影响河流系统对于有效管理非常重要。我们使用了基于空间的，以栖息地为基础的生命周期模型，即生态系统诊断和治疗（EDT），以检查气候变化和农业集约情景对硬头黑麦草性能的影响。在哥伦比亚河盆地。气候变化对流域范围的丰度，栖息地容量，生产力和硬头生活史多样性具有强烈的负面影响，在最严峻的气候情景下影响最大。农业集约化对钢头的性能也有严重的负面影响，特别是在农作物生产地区完全清除河岸缓冲带的最严峻情况下。组合使用时，两个压力源对杆头产生交互作用。卵的孵化阶段最容易受到两种压力的影响。产卵的成年还受到气候变化的强烈影响，而越冬的幼崽则受到农业集约化的影响。通过EDT建模，可以确定子盆地中最容易受到这些压力源影响的区域，以及未来条件下生产力的重要据点。最后，模型结果表明，针对气候和农业变化的最重要保护领域不一定与当前条件下确定为高度优先的保护和恢复领域相同。