A substantial increase in food production is needed for global food security. Europe is the largest wheat producer, delivering 35% of wheat globally, but its future genetic yield potential is yet unknown. We estimated the genetic yield potential of wheat in Europe under 2050 climate by designing in silico wheat ideotypes based on genetic variation in wheat germplasm. To evaluate the importance of heat and drought stresses around flowering, a critical stage in wheat development, sensitive and tolerant ideotypes were designed. Ideotype yields ranged from 9 to 17 t ha−1 across major wheat growing regions in Europe under 2050 climate. Both ideotypes showed a substantial increase in yield of 66−89% compared to current local cultivars under future climate. Key traits for wheat improvements under future climate were identified. Ideotype design is a powerful tool for estimating crop genetic yield potential in a target environment, along with the potential to accelerate breeding by providing target traits for improvements.

中文翻译：

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未来气候下欧洲小麦基因型预测的产量大幅增加

全球粮食安全需要大幅增加粮食产量。欧洲是最大的小麦生产国，占全球小麦产量的 35%，但其未来的遗传产量潜力尚不清楚。我们通过基于小麦种质遗传变异的硅小麦基因组设计，估计了 2050 年气候下欧洲小麦的遗传产量潜力。为了评估开花前后热和干旱胁迫的重要性，设计了小麦发育的关键阶段，敏感和耐受的意识形态。在 2050 年气候下，欧洲主要小麦产区的基因型产量范围为 9 到 17 t ha−1。在未来的气候下，与当前的当地品种相比，这两种理想型的产量均显着增加了 66-89%。确定了未来气候下小麦改良的关键性状。