The surface air temperature in the northern mid-latitudes during winter showed a significant cooling trend from the late 1990s to the early 2010s, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This unexpected cooling, which was particularly strong across Eurasia, has been partly attributed to Arctic sea-ice loss. Here, the statistical relationship between Arctic sea-ice loss and surface air-temperature change during winter in Eurasia, which is often referred to as the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern, is re-evaluated by using a break-point trend analysis and maximum covariance analysis. A significant time-lagged covariability is observed between the Arctic sea-ice concentration over the Barents–Kara seas and the Eurasian surface air temperature during winter, with the former leading the latter by approximately two months. More importantly, the timing of an abrupt decline in the autumn Arctic sea ice that occurred in the late 1990s is coincident with the beginning of the Eurasian winter cooling. This concurrent trend change is statistically significant and robustly found in both the break-point analysis and maximum covariance analysis. These results suggest that both the interannual variability and decadal trend change seen for the surface air temperature during Eurasian winters are likely influenced by regional sea-ice changes over the Barents–Kara seas.

中文翻译：

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近几十年来欧亚冬季温度变化及其与北极海冰流失的关系

尽管温室气体浓度增加，但从 1990 年代末到 2010 年代初，冬季北部中纬度地区的地表气温呈现显着降温趋势。这种出乎意料的降温在整个欧亚大陆尤为强烈，部分原因是北极海冰的流失。在这里，欧亚大陆冬季北极海冰损失与地表气温变化之间的统计关系，通常被称为温暖的北极 - 寒冷的欧亚大陆模式，通过使用断点趋势分析和最大值重新评估。协方差分析。在冬季，巴伦支海-卡拉海的北极海冰浓度与欧亚表面气温之间存在显着的时滞协变，前者领先后者约两个月。更重要的是，1990 年代后期发生的秋季北极海冰突然减少的时间恰逢欧亚冬季变冷的开始。这种同时发生的趋势变化在断点分析和最大协方差分析中都具有统计显着性和稳健性。这些结果表明，欧亚冬季地表气温的年际变率和年代际趋势变化可能受到巴伦支海-卡拉海区域海冰变化的影响。