Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of singleand multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems.

中文翻译：

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对参与式情景规划的系统回顾，以展望山区社会生态系统的未来

山区社会生态系统 (MtSES) 为超过一半的人类提供重要的生态系统服务。然而，生活在这些高度多样化地区的人口现在面临着全球变化。他们能够预测变化以战略性地管理资源并避免潜在的冲突，这一点至关重要。然而，考虑到不确定性的范围和 MtSES 的独特性，为未来规划可持续、公平的过渡是一项艰巨的任务。参与式情景规划 (PSP) 可以通过批判性地反思更广泛的适应性转型创新途径来帮助 MtSES 社区。尽管有效方法的设计已被广泛讨论，但 PSP 是如何在 MtSES 中使用的还有待研究。在这里，我们首次对单标量和多标量进行了系统的全球审查​​，在 MtSES 中开展的多部门 PSP，我们在其中描述了该过程，确定了优势和差距，并提出了在 MtSES 中应用 PSP 的有效方法。我们使用了一个九步过程来帮助指导对 1989 年筛选文章中的 42 项研究的分析。我们的结果表明，自 2006 年以来相关研究稳步增加，2015 年至 2017 年间发表了 43%。这些研究涵盖 39 个国家，其中超过 50% 在欧洲。MtSES 中的 PSP 主要用于建立合作、社会学习、协作和决策支持，但由于与预期最终用户的参与不足，阻碍了这些目标的实现。MtSES PSP 主要侧重于设想治理、经济、土地利用变化和生物多样性等主题，但忽略了性别平等、公共卫生和卫生等主题。在 MtSES 中有许多扩展和改进 PSP 的途径：对其他地区、部门、更多不同的利益相关者，并特别关注 MtSES 悖论。交流不确定性、监测和评估影响以及产生更多比较方法可以进一步提高 PSP 在应对 MtSES 挑战方面的效用，并为其他复杂的社会生态系统提供经验教训。