We evaluated the performance of 12 ground‐motion models (GMMs) for earthquakes in the tectonically active shallow crustal region of southern California using instrumental ground‐motion observations from the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence (⁠Mw 4.0–7.1). The sequence was well recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network and rapid response portable aftershock monitoring stations. Ground‐motion recordings of this size and proximity are rare, valuable, and independent of GMM development, allowing us to evaluate the predictive powers of GMMs. We first compute total residuals and compare the probability density functions, means, and standard deviations of the observed and predicted ground motions. Next we use the total residuals as inputs to the probabilistic scoring method (log‐likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) logic trees. We also explore GMM performance for a range of earthquake magnitudes, wave propagation distances, and site characteristics. We find that the Next Generation Attenuation West‐2 (NGAW2) active crust GMMs perform well for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence and thus validate their use in the 2018 USGS NSHM. However, significant ground‐motion residual scatter remains unmodeled by NGAW2 GMMs due to complexities such as local site amplification and source directivity. Results from this study will inform logic‐tree weights for updates to the USGS National NSHM. Results from this study support the use of nonergodic GMMs that can account for regional attenuation and site variations to minimize epistemic uncertainty in USGS NSHMs.

中文翻译：

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使用加利福尼亚Ridgecrest地震序列的近源仪器地面运动记录评估USGS地震危险模型的地面运动模型

我们使用2019年加利福尼亚州里奇克莱斯特地震序列的仪器地震动观测值（Mw 4.0-7.1），评估了12种地震动模型（GMM）在加利福尼亚南部构造活动浅地壳地区发生地震的性能。该序列由南加州地震台网和快速反应便携式余震监测站进行了很好的记录。这种大小和距离的地面运动记录是罕见的，有价值的，并且与GMM的发展无关，这使我们能够评估GMM的预测能力。我们首先计算总残差，然后比较观察到的和预测到的地面运动的概率密度函数，均值和标准偏差。接下来，我们将总残差用作概率评分方法（对数似然[LLH]）的输入。LLH方法提供了一个单一评分，可用于加权美国地质调查局（USGS）国家地震危险模型（NSHM）逻辑树中的GMM。我们还将探讨GMM在一系列地震烈度，波传播距离和场地特征方面的性能。我们发现，新一代West-2衰减（NGAW2）有源地壳GMM在2019年加利福尼亚州里奇克莱斯特地震序列中表现良好，因此验证了它们在2018年USGS NSHM中的使用。但是，由于诸如局部站点放大和源方向性之类的复杂性，NGAW2 GMM仍无法模拟出明显的地面运动残留散射。这项研究的结果将为USGS National NSHM的更新提供逻辑树权重。