We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1 bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross‐fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the Mw 7.1. Together, the Ridgecrest mainshocks brought a 120 km long portion of the Garlock fault from 0.2 to 10 bars closer to failure. These results motivate our introduction of forecasts of future seismicity. Most attempts to forecast aftershocks use statistical decay models or Coulomb stress transfer. Statistical approaches require simplifying assumptions about the spatial distribution of aftershocks and their decay; Coulomb models make simplifying assumptions about the geometry of the surrounding faults, which we seek here to remove. We perform a rate–state implementation of the Coulomb stress change on focal mechanisms to capture fault complexity. After tuning the model through a learning period to improve its forecast ability, we make retrospective forecasts to assess model’s predictive ability. Our forecast for the next 12 months yields a 2.3% chance of an Mw≥7.5 Garlock fault rupture. If such a rupture occurred and reached within 45 km of the San Andreas, we calculate it would raise the probability of a San Andreas rupture on the Mojave section by a factor of 150. We therefore estimate the net chance of large San Andreas earthquake in the next 12 months to be 1.15%, or about three to five times its background probability.

中文翻译：

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2019 Ridgecrest序列的长期和短期应力相互作用以及基于库仑的地震预测

我们首先探讨了加利福尼亚南部的一系列回顾性地震相互作用。我们发现，在过去的150年中，发生了4次Mw≥7的电击，使Ridgecrest断层距离断层更近1 bar。检查Mw 6.4和Mw 7.1事件之间的34小时时间跨度，我们计算出Mw 6.4事件使Mw 7.1地震的震中区域接近0.7巴，而Mw 7.1事件消除了大部分的周围应力。首先传授。我们还发现，当Mw 6.4交叉故障余震落在Mw 7.1的压力阴影下时，它们会关闭。在一起，Ridgecrest主震带使加洛克断裂带的120公里长部分从0.2到10 bar更接近断裂。这些结果激励我们引入对未来地震活动性的预测。预测余震的大多数尝试都使用统计衰减模型或库仑应力传递。统计方法需要简化关于余震的空间分布及其衰减的假设；库仑模型简化了关于周围断层几何形状的假设，在这里我们试图将其删除。我们在焦点机制上执行库仑应力变化的速率状态实现，以捕获故障的复杂性。在学习期间调整模型以提高其预测能力之后，我们进行回顾性预测以评估模型的预测能力。我们对未来12个月的预测得出Mw≥7.5Garlock断层破裂的机会为2.3％。如果发生此类破裂并到达圣安德烈亚斯（San Andreas）45公里以内，