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Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: a review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.239
Jeongwoo Han 1 , Vijay P. Singh 2
Affiliation  

Droughts of greater severity are expected to occur more frequently at larger space-time scales under global warming and climate change. Intensified drought and increased rainfall intermittency will heighten tree mortality. To mitigate drought-driven societal and environmental hazards, reliable long-term drought forecasting is critical. This review examines causative mechanisms for drought and tree mortality, and synthesizes stochastic, statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical-dynamical drought forecasting models as well as theoretical, empirical, and mechanistic tree mortality forecasting models. Since an increase in global mean temperature changes the strength of sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnections, forecasting models should have the flexibility to incorporate the varying causality of drought. Some of the statistical drought forecasting models, which have nonlinear and nonstationary natures, can be merged with dynamical models to compensate for their lack of stochastic structure in order to improve forecasting skills. Since tree mortality is mainly affected by a hydraulic failure under drought conditions, mechanistic forecasting models, due to their capacity to track the percentage of embolisms against available soil water, are adequate to forecast tree mortality. This study also elucidates approaches to improve long-term drought forecasting and regional tree mortality forecasting as a future outlook for drought studies.



中文翻译:

全球变暖下的干旱和树木死亡预测:致病机理和建模方法综述

在全球变暖和气候变化的情况下,预计在更大的时空范围内,更严重的干旱将更频繁地发生。干旱加剧和降雨间歇性增加将增加树木死亡率。为了减轻干旱造成的社会和环境危害,可靠的长期干旱预报至关重要。本文探讨了干旱和树木死亡的病因机制,并综合了随机,统计,动态和混合统计动态干旱预测模型以及理论,经验和机制树木死亡率预测模型。由于全球平均温度的升高改变了海面温度(SST)远程连接的强度,因此预测模型应具有灵活性,可以纳入干旱的各种因果关系。可以将某些具有非线性和非平稳性质的统计干旱预报模型与动态模型合并,以弥补其随机结构的不足,从而提高预报技巧。由于树木死亡率主要受干旱条件下的水力破坏影响,因此,由于机械预测模型具有跟踪相对于可用土壤水的栓塞百分比的能力,因此机械预测模型足以预测树木死亡率。这项研究还阐明了改善长期干旱预报和区域树木死亡率预报的方法,作为干旱研究的未来前景。由于树木死亡率主要受干旱条件下的水力破坏影响,因此,由于机械预测模型具有跟踪相对于可用土壤水的栓塞百分比的能力,因此机械预测模型足以预测树木死亡率。这项研究还阐明了改善长期干旱预测和区域树木死亡率预测的方法,作为干旱研究的未来前景。由于树木死亡率主要受干旱条件下的水力破坏影响,因此,由于机械预测模型具有跟踪相对于可用土壤水的栓塞百分比的能力,因此机械预测模型足以预测树木死亡率。这项研究还阐明了改善长期干旱预测和区域树木死亡率预测的方法,作为干旱研究的未来前景。

更新日期:2020-08-20
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