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Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007–2017
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2019.236
K. F. Fung 1 , Y. F. Huang 1 , C. H. Koo 1 , Y. W. Soh 1
Affiliation  

Droughts are prolonged precipitation-deficient periods, resulting in inadequate water availability and adverse repercussions to crops, animals and humans. Drought forecasting is vital to water resources planning and management in minimizing the negative consequences. Many models have been developed for this purpose and, indeed, it would be a long process for researchers to select the best suited model for their research. A timely, thorough and informative overview of the models' concepts and historical applications would be helpful in preventing researchers from overlooking the potential selection of models and saving them considerable amounts of time on the problem. Thus, this paper aims to review drought forecasting approaches including their input requirements and performance measures, for 2007–2017. The models are categorized according to their respective mechanism: regression analysis, stochastic, probabilistic, artificial intelligence based, hybrids and dynamic modelling. Details of the selected papers, including modelling approaches, authors, year of publication, methods, input variables, evaluation criteria, time scale and type of drought are tabulated for ease of reference. The basic concepts of each approach with key parameters are explained, along with the historical applications, benefits and limitations of the models. Finally, future outlooks and potential modelling techniques are furnished for continuing drought research.



中文翻译:

干旱预报:2007–2017年建模方法回顾

干旱会延长降水不足的时期,导致水资源不足,并对农作物,动物和人类造成不利影响。干旱预报对于最大限度地减少负面影响对水资源规划和管理至关重要。为此已经开发了许多模型,实际上,对于研究者来说,选择最适合其研究的模型将是一个漫长的过程。对模型的概念和历史应用进行及时,全面和有益的概述将有助于防止研究人员忽视潜在的模型选择,并为他们节省大量的时间来解决问题。因此,本文旨在回顾2007-2017年的干旱预报方法,包括其投入要求和绩效指标。这些模型根据其各自的机制进行分类:回归分析,随机,概率,基于人工智能,混合和动态建模。选定论文的详细信息,包括建模方法,作者,出版年份,方法,输入变量,评价标准,干旱时间尺度和干旱类型,以供参考。解释了每种具有关键参数的方法的基本概念,以及模型的历史应用,优点和局限性。最后,为持续的干旱研究提供了未来的前景和潜在的建模技术。出版年份,方法,输入变量,评估标准,干旱的时间范围和类型均以表格形式列出,以方便参考。解释了每种具有关键参数的方法的基本概念,以及模型的历史应用,优点和局限性。最后,为持续的干旱研究提供了未来的前景和潜在的建模技术。出版年份,方法,输入变量,评估标准,干旱的时间范围和类型均以表格形式列出,以方便参考。解释了每种具有关键参数的方法的基本概念,以及模型的历史应用,优点和局限性。最后,为持续的干旱研究提供了未来的前景和潜在的建模技术。

更新日期:2020-08-20
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