Organisms change breeding investments as a function of the environment, thereby maximizing reproductive success. Climate change studies of avian life‐history have long focused on plasticity of laying dates and clutch sizes in response to weather conditions prior to clutch initiation. By contrast, effects of unpredictable weather events occurring after initial reproductive decisions are made have largely been ignored, despite becoming increasingly important with ongoing climate change. We studied the detrimental effects of fluctuations in temperature and precipitation during various nesting phases of great tits Parus major, identifying the developmental age windows where weather fluctuations affected hatching, nestling mass and fledging success. We used a longitudinal (8‐year) dataset of great tits breeding in nest boxes in southern Germany and applied a recently introduced explorative approach that does not require a priori assumptions on the time windows (range of ages) over which weather may affect reproductive parameters. Lower temperatures and higher precipitation during the nestling phase negatively affected nestling mass and survival: nestlings between the ages 6 and 9 days were most susceptible to this form of variation in weather. Effects of weather did not differ between years, i.e. there was no evidence for ‘good' versus ‘bad' years. Future research should focus on the mechanisms underpinning effects of weather on nestling growth and survival in other populations and consider if age‐dependent weather consequences occur in a wide variety of taxa, as specific developmental stages may serve as weak spots in a scenario of increasing recurrence of weather extremes.

中文翻译：

---

天气对大山雀雏鸟生存的影响因发育阶段而异

有机体根据环境改变育种投资，从而最大限度地提高繁殖成功率。鸟类生命史的气候变化研究长期以来一直专注于产卵日期和离合器大小的可塑性，以响应离合器启动之前的天气条件。相比之下，尽管随着持续的气候变化变得越来越重要，但在做出最初的生殖决策后发生的不可预测的天气事件的影响已被很大程度上忽略。我们研究了大山雀（Parus major）的不同筑巢阶段温度和降水波动的有害影响，确定天气波动影响孵化，雏鸟成群和成年成功的发育年龄窗口。我们使用了德国南部巢箱中繁殖的大山雀的纵向（8年）数据集，并应用了最近引入的探索性方法，该方法不需要对天气可能影响生殖参数的时间窗口（年龄范围）进行先验假设。雏鸟期的低温和高降水量对雏鸟的质量和生存造成负面影响：6至9天的雏鸟最容易受到这种天气变化的影响。年份之间的天气影响没有差异，即没有证据表明“好”与“坏”年。