当前位置: X-MOL 学术Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
A novel integrated price and load forecasting method in smart grid environment based on multi-level structure
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.engappai.2020.103852
Yang Zhang , Caibo Deng , Ran Zhao , Sebastian leto

Prediction of load and price are two critical key in power system planning and operation. Most of the recent works in this area forecast the load and price signals separately but, a dynamic model in smart grid is evaluated while, the customers may have opportunity to react the proposed prices changing through shifting the electricity usages from expensive to cheaper hours. So, the load and price signals are coupled strongly which made the previous prediction models ineffective. In this research, a synthetic prediction approach has been proposed by considering the load and price signals, simultaneously. This method works as multi-input multi-output (MIMO) model based on least square support vector machine (LSSVM) forecast engine. Furthermore, a dyadic wavelet transform (DWT) is suggested in this approach to decompose the original signal into different small sub-signals. Beside of that, the modified mutual information (MMI) filter has been used to choose the best candidate input of forecast engine. The learning section is also coupled with novel modified optimization algorithm based on gravitational search algorithm (GSA) which called as modified GSA (MGSA). Finally, various forecasting errors have been considered as average mean absolute percentage error and error variance to get the comparison outcomes and performance of forecasting approaches. For this purpose, different markets have been considered as test case to show the efficiency of suggested approach.



中文翻译:

基于多层结构的智能电网环境下的价格与负荷综合预测新方法

负荷和价格的预测是电力系统规划和运行的两个关键关键。该领域的大多数最新工作分别预测了负荷和价格信号,但是,智能电网中的动态模型得到了评估,同时,客户可能有机会通过将用电量从昂贵的时间转变为廉价的时间来应对提议的价格变化。因此,负荷和价格信号强烈耦合,这使得先前的预测模型无效。在这项研究中,已经提出了一种同时考虑负荷和价格信号的综合预测方法。该方法可作为基于最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)预测引擎的多输入多输出(MIMO)模型。此外,建议采用二进小波变换(DWT)将原始信号分解为不同的小子信号。除此之外,已使用改进的互信息(MMI)过滤器来选择预测引擎的最佳候选输入。学习部分还结合了基于重力搜索算法(GSA)的新型改进优化算法,称为改进GSA(MGSA)。最后,将各种预测误差视为平均均值绝对百分比误差和误差方差,以获得比较结果和预测方法的性能。为此,已将不同的市场视为测试案例,以证明所建议方法的有效性。修改后的互信息(MMI)过滤器已用于选择预测引擎的最佳候选输入。学习部分还结合了基于重力搜索算法(GSA)的新型改进优化算法,称为改进GSA(MGSA)。最后,将各种预测误差视为平均平均绝对百分比误差和误差方差,以获得比较结果和预测方法的性能。为此,已将不同的市场视为测试案例,以证明所建议方法的有效性。修改后的互信息(MMI)过滤器已用于选择预测引擎的最佳候选输入。学习部分还结合了基于重力搜索算法(GSA)的新型改进优化算法,称为改进GSA(MGSA)。最后,将各种预测误差视为平均平均绝对百分比误差和误差方差,以获得比较结果和预测方法的性能。为此,已将不同的市场视为测试案例,以证明所建议方法的有效性。为了获得比较结果和预测方法的性能,已将各种预测误差视为平均平均绝对百分比误差和误差方差。为此,已将不同的市场视为测试案例,以证明所建议方法的有效性。为了获得比较结果和预测方法的性能,已将各种预测误差视为平均平均绝对百分比误差和误差方差。为此,已将不同的市场视为测试案例,以证明所建议方法的有效性。

更新日期:2020-08-19
down
wechat
bug