Abstract The likely increase in extreme rainfall events (ERE) due to climate change, particularly associated with tropical storms and hurricanes, threatens coastal communities worldwide. A model based on socioeconomic and environmental indicators was used to assess and categorize vulnerability to ERE at the municipal level, in Sinaloa, a coastal state of northwest Mexico. Coastal vulnerability was assessed based on a system of indicators, integrated into five criteria within two higher categories: response capacity (Economic conditions, Social development, and Living standards), and severity (Geographic exposure and Risk intensifiers). From a preliminary set of 25 indicators, three of them were selected by criterion using the Delphi method, and their values were later standardized from 0 (low) to 1 (high) on a vulnerability scale. Both criteria and indicators were weighted following an analytical hierarchical process (AHP), resulting in the main determinants of vulnerability being Geographic exposure (0.43) and Economic conditions (0.34). This first approach to a vulnerability assessment using standardized values showed that Guasave (to the north) and Escuinapa (to the south) are the most vulnerable municipalities, scoring >9.0 (with 15 being the maximum score). In contrast, Culiacán and San Ignacio, both central municipalities, ranked as the least vulnerable (<5.5). A further analysis using the integral vulnerability index (IVI) corroborated Guasave (3.73) and Escuinapa (3.15) as the most vulnerable, discarding latitudinal changes as a possible promotor of vulnerability. Although the coastal population was the main determinant of vulnerability (median = 0.57), other indicators associated with severity as well as response capacity were responsible for the increase in IVI scores. This study highlights the need for an integrated vulnerability analysis to support public policies and the decision-making process to protect coastal communities from environmental climate change.

中文翻译：

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墨西哥太平洋沿岸极端降雨事件脆弱性的多标准评估

摘要 由于气候变化，特别是与热带风暴和飓风相关的极端降雨事件 (ERE) 可能增加，威胁着全世界的沿海社区。在墨西哥西北部沿海州锡那罗亚，一个基于社会经济和环境指标的模型被用于评估和分类市级对 ERE 的脆弱性。沿海脆弱性是根据一个指标系统进行评估的，该系统整合到两个更高类别的五个标准中：响应能力（经济条件、社会发展和生活标准）和严重性（地理暴露和风险增强因素）。从最初的 25 个指标中，使用 Delphi 方法通过标准选择了其中的三个，然后在脆弱性尺度上将它们的值从 0（低）到 1（高）标准化。标准和指标都按照层次分析过程 (AHP) 进行加权，导致脆弱性的主要决定因素是地理暴露 (0.43) 和经济条件 (0.34)。使用标准化值进行脆弱性评估的第一种方法表明 Guasave（向北）和 Escuinapa（向南）是最脆弱的城市，得分 >9.0（最高得分为 15）。相比之下，中央直辖市库利亚坎和圣伊格纳西奥被列为最不脆弱的 (<5.5)。使用整体脆弱性指数 (IVI) 进行的进一步分析证实 Guasave (3.73) 和 Escuinapa (3.15) 是最脆弱的，放弃了纬度变化作为脆弱性的可能促进因素。尽管沿海人口是脆弱性的主要决定因素（中位数 = 0.57），与严重程度和反应能力相关的其他指标是导致 IVI 分数增加的原因。本研究强调需要进行综合脆弱性分析，以支持公共政策和决策过程，以保护沿海社区免受环境气候变化的影响。