Marine turtles may respond to projected climatic changes by shifting their nesting range to climatically suitable areas, which may result in either increased exposure to threats or fewer threats. Therefore, there is the need to identify whether habitat predicted to be climatically suitable for marine turtle nesting in the future will be affected by future threats and hinder marine turtles’ ability to adapt. We modelled the geographic distribution of climatically suitable nesting habitat for marine turtles in the USA under future climate scenarios, identified potential range shifts by 2050, determined impacts from sea-level rise, and explored changes in exposure to coastal development as a result of range shifts. Overall nesting ranges of marine turtle species were not predicted to change between the current and future time periods, except for the northern nesting boundaries for loggerhead turtles. However, declines in climatically suitable nesting grounds were predicted; loggerhead turtles will experience the highest decreases (10%) in climatically suitable habitat followed by green (7%) and leatherback (1%) turtles. However, sea-level rise is projected to inundate 78–81% of current habitat predicted to be climatically suitable in the future, depending on species and scenario. Nevertheless, new beaches will also form, and suitable nesting habitat could be gained, with leatherback turtles potentially experiencing the biggest percentage gain in suitable habitat.

中文翻译：

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美国沿海发展可能会阻碍海龟对气候变化的潜在适应性

海龟可能会通过将其筑巢范围转移到适合气候的区域来应对预期的气候变化，这可能会导致受威胁的风险增加或威胁减少。因此，有必要确定未来预计会在气候上适合海龟筑巢的生境是否会受到未来威胁的影响并阻碍海龟的适应能力。我们对未来气候情景下美国海龟在气候上合适的筑巢栖息地的地理分布进行了建模，确定了到2050年的潜在范围变化，确定了海平面上升的影响，并研究了范围变化导致的沿海开发暴露变化。预计目前和将来的时间段内，海龟物种的总体筑巢范围不会改变，除了北部海龟的筑巢边界。但是，预计在气候上合适的筑巢地将减少；在适合气候的栖息地中，龟的减少量最大（10％），其次是绿龟（7％）和棱皮龟（1％）。但是，根据物种和情况的不同，预计海平面上升将淹没目前预计在未来气候上合适的生境的78-81％。然而，新的海滩也将形成，并且可以获得合适的筑巢栖息地，棱皮龟可能会在合适的栖息地中获得最大的百分比增长。在适合气候的栖息地中，龟的减少量最大（10％），其次是绿龟（7％）和棱皮龟（1％）。但是，根据物种和情况的不同，预计海平面上升将淹没目前预计在未来气候上合适的生境的78-81％。然而，新的海滩也将形成，并且可以获得合适的筑巢栖息地，棱皮龟可能会在合适的栖息地中获得最大的百分比增长。在适合气候的栖息地中，龟的减少量最大（10％），其次是绿龟（7％）和棱皮龟（1％）。但是，根据物种和情况的不同，预计海平面上升将淹没目前预计在未来气候上合适的当前栖息地的78–81％。然而，新的海滩也将形成，并且可以获得合适的筑巢栖息地，棱皮龟可能会在合适的栖息地中获得最大的百分比增长。