Abstract—

MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) method, was applied in the current study in order to assess present and future spatial distribution of the Phoenician juniper (Juniperus phoenicea). Potential future changes in the geographic range size of J. phoenicea in Algeria was determined for the two horizons 2050 and 2070 based on CCSM4 model of the IPCC. Three types of data were used in SDM namely: 21 edaphic factors, 10 topographic parameters, and 19 climatic factors. The AUC value (Area Under Curve) scored 0.966, which showed the high performance of the MaxEnt model. The most contributing variables were: total soil carbon (22.1%), Bio14: driest month precipitation (19.2%), slope (11.1%), Bio15: seasonality of precipitation (coefficient of variation) (10.3), total soil nitrogen (7%), soil available water capacity during summer (6.3%). The presence probability map obtained shows a narrowing of the favorable area of the species by about 52.5% by the year 2070. Such a result asserts the vulnerable state of this species toward the climate change, which results in altitudinal, longitudinal and latitudinal species distribution range shift as a response reflecting the becoming of unfavorable changes of the Phoenician juniper habitats. Based on these results, it is necessary to adopt necessary planning measures for the protection and conservation of the species regarding its vulnerability to climate change.

中文翻译：

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根据当前和未来的气候变化预测，阿尔及利亚腓力松的地理范围大小的潜在未来变化

摘要-

为了评估腓尼基杜松（Juniperus phoenicea）当前和未来的空间分布，在本研究中采用了一种物种分布模型（SDM）方法MaxEnt（最大熵）。phoenicea地理范围大小上的潜在未来变化根据IPCC的CCSM4模型，确定了阿尔及利亚2050年和2070年的两个时期。SDM中使用了三种类型的数据，即：21个海面因素，10个地形参数和19个气候因素。AUC值（曲线下面积）得分为0.966，显示了MaxEnt模型的高性能。影响最大的变量是：土壤总碳（22.1％），生物14：最干旱月份的降水（19.2％），坡度（11.1％），生物15：降水的季节性（变化系数）（10.3），土壤总氮（7％） ），夏季的土壤可用水容量（6.3％）。所获得的存在概率图显示，到2070年，该物种的有利面积缩小了约52.5％。这样的结果证明了该物种对气候变化的脆弱状态，从而导致了海拔高度，纵向和横向物种分布范围的变化是反映腓尼基杜松生境不利变化的一种反应。根据这些结果，有必要采取必要的计划措施，以保护和保护该物种免受气候变化的影响。