The current study explores the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on CO₂ emissions in Azerbaijan utilizing time series data spanning from 1996 to 2013. The structural time series modeling (STSM) approach is employed in empirical estimations. The STSM framework allows parameters to evolve over time. Estimation results show that the coefficients of FDI and income are time-varying. The impact of FDI is positive before 2006 and negative after that year, while the income elasticity is positive for the entire period. The estimated income elasticity allows to conclude that the EKC phenomenon does not hold for the case of Azerbaijan. The different effects of FDI on CO₂ emissions, possible explanations and related policy implications are discussed.

本研究利用1996年至2013年的时间序列数据，探索了外国直接投资（FDI）对阿塞拜疆的CO ₂排放的影响。结构时间序列建模（STSM）方法用于经验估计。STSM框架允许参数随时间变化。估计结果表明，外国直接投资和收入的系数是随时间变化的。FDI的影响在2006年之前为正，而在那年之后为负，而整个期间的收入弹性为正。估计的收入弹性可以得出结论，对于阿塞拜疆而言，EKC现象不成立。讨论了外国直接投资对CO ₂排放的不同影响，可能的解释以及相关的政策含义。