Extreme weather events, like a strong El Niño (ENSO), affect society in many different ways especially in the context of recent globe warming. In the Colombian case, ENSO had a significant impact on consumer food prices during the strongest event in 2015. Our research evaluates the relationship between ENSO and Colombian food inflation growth by using a smooth transition nonlinear model. We estimate the impacts of a strong ENSO on food inflation growth by adopting generalised impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results suggest that the weather shocks are transitory and asymmetric on inflation. A strong El Niño shock has a significant effect on the food inflation growth from five to nine months after the shock, and the accumulated elasticity is close to 730 basic points. We build the GIRFs for eight different episodes associated with a strong El Niño in the period corresponding from March 1962 to December 2018, and there is no evidence of changes in the size of Colombian food inflation growth responses over time. Finally, the negative shock, associated with a strong La Niña, shows an ambiguous effect on food prices.

中文翻译：

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天气现象厄尔尼诺现象与哥伦比亚食品价格之间的非线性关系

极端的天气事件，例如强烈的厄尔尼诺现象（ENSO），会以多种不同方式影响社会，尤其是在近期全球变暖的背景下。以哥伦比亚为例，在2015年最强劲的事件中，ENSO对消费食品价格产生了重大影响。我们的研究通过使用平滑过渡非线性模型评估了ENSO与哥伦比亚食品通胀增长之间的关系。我们通过采用广义冲激响应函数（GIRF）估算强大的ENSO对食品通胀的影响。结果表明，天气冲击是短暂的，通货膨胀不对称。强大的厄尔尼诺冲击对冲击后的5到9个月的食品通货膨胀增长具有显着影响，并且累积弹性接近730个基本点。我们为1962年3月至2018年12月这段时期内与强烈的厄尔尼诺现象有关的八个不同事件建立了GIRF ，并且没有证据表明哥伦比亚食品通胀增长反应的规模随时间变化。最后，与强劲的拉尼娜现象相关的负面冲击表明，对食品价格的影响不明确。